TrendsCenter Play of the Day: Trail Blazers +2.5 vs. Timberwolves
Per TrendsCenter, this season, underdogs of five or less points who played their last game on the road who also have a winning percentage of less than 50% and who score less points per game than the league average have gone 22-4 ATS (84.62%, +17.6u, 61.54% ROI) versus teams that made the playoffs last season and score more points per game than the league average.
Anthony Edwards will be out for the third-straight game tonight and even though the T-Wolves are coming off back-to-back wins with their star on the bench, one of them came against the Jazz, who are tanking in an obvious way.
This Blazers team lost all three games against Minnesota this season, but one came by three and one came by four points. Edwards dropped 34 and 41 points in those games, respectively. Portland needs to keep winning and is currently in 8th place in the West and has gone 20-14 ATS (58.8%) at home this season, 5th-best in the NBA, including 13-8 ATS (61.9%) as a home dog. Even though Portland will be without Shaedon Sharpe, All-Star Deni Avdija is back and the loss of Edwards for Minnesota is much more drastic. Naz Reid is also questionable for the visitors.
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Betr Pick of the Day: Ty Jerome OVER 18.5 Points
As massive home underdogs against the Celtics tonight, Jerome may not look like a logical player to gravitate to, but the situation he’s in is simply outstanding. Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Clarke and Jahmai Mashack are already ruled out for Memphis while GG Jackson and Taj Gibson are both doubtful. With the aforementioned players and those who were traded away off the floor this season, Jerome has a 35.78% usage rate, more than 13% higher than the next-highest player on his team.
For context, only Luka Doncic (36.6%) has a higher usage rate on the season and only Giannis Antetokounmpo (0.96), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (0.94) and Doncic (0.93) average more points per minute than Jerome (0.90).
Averaging 20.2 points in just 22.3 minutes per game this season, Jerome has been the most efficient player in the entire NBA and has gone over this number in five of his last six games in a matchup-proof fashion. In his limited minutes, he’s been very active, chucking up 14.1 shots (48.6%), including 6.7 from three (42.5%) with 4.2 free throw attempts. Despite the fact that he’s played 20-to-25 minutes in all 13 games he’s played this year, his usage speaks for itself.
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ProphetX Parlay Of The Day: Avalanche ML vs. Blackhawks & Knicks ML vs. Purdue vs. Queens Under 165.5 (+130)
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Since 2021, the Avalanche have gone a perfect 29-0 SU when favored between -155 and -345 playing a team who played the night before. The NBA system above has hit 17 straight times and has a 97.22% win rate this season while the lopsided matchup between Purdue and Queens has a total of 160 that I teased up to 165.5 for some extra safety.
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