When the Reds and Giants stayed under their 8.5-run total last night, I improved my MLB start to 16-4 (80%, +10.49 units). While this obviously isn’t sustainable over the course of an entire season, it feels pretty damn good to have an edge early on and you can, too! All you need to do: download/open the TrendsCenter App and grab a premium subscription. Let’s break down my favorite NBA Play-In pick of the day and key in on a couple baseball plays using trends and systems as always.
Magic +2 at 76ers (-105, Caesars)
TrendsCenter System: Over the last 21 years, road teams that lost their last game priced between +1.5 and -12 after the 41st game of the season with a win percentage of 40% or better have gone 16-2-1 ATS (88.89%, +13.8 units, 66.03% ROI).
Both of these teams finished 45-37 in the regular season, but since the Sixers won two of three games against the Magic, they got the seventh spot and home-court advantage for this game. Orlando, however, ended up in this spot after a shocking loss to the Celtics (who rested their core players) in their last game of the regular season. That embarrassing loss could make them extra hungry to make a statement in this spot.
The big storyline in this game is the absence of Joel Embiid (appendectomy recovery). Without him, Nick Nurse is going to have to rely heavily on the duo of Adem Bona or Andre Drummond against Wendell Carter Jr., who is more of a stretch five. Orlando’s size could therefore become a major issue for Philadelphia, who will have a difficult time stopping both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner in transition, which was a weak spot for the Sixers all year long. Desmond Bane, Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs will all play major roles for Orlando as well and can all be gritty, physical players on both ends.
Other than Embiid being out, what makes me like Orlando to cover (and win outright) in this game is the fact that they had 27 clutch wins (games within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime), which was tied for the most in the NBA. They also took an NBA-high 110 shots with the score differential within two points in the final two minutes of regulation or overtime this season, per NBA.com. Therefore, they’re no stranger to tight games and given the tight spread, that experience could come in handy with these stakes in mind.
Royals ML vs. Tigers (+115, Bet365)
TrendsCenter Trend: Since the start of last season, teams with moneylines of +190 or shorter in games with totals of 9.0 or less have gone 23-8 (74.19%, +17.95 units, 49.81% ROI) against the Tigers when Jack Flaherty has started.
Jack Flaherty (0-1, 5.14 ERA) pitching has certainly been a negative for the Tigers (8-9) since the start of last season, as opponents have consistently won. This season, in a small three-start sample size, he’s gotten off to a slow start and literally all of his numbers across the board have been concerning, per his Baseball Savant profile. His 55.3% hard hit rate ranks in the bottom seventh percent of MLB pitchers and his entire arsenal of pitches has had below average or bad percentile and run value rankings. While trusting this Royals (7-10) offense is sometimes a tough pill to swallow, I’ll happily fade Flaherty again.
Seth Lugo (1-1, 1.53 ERA), on the other hand, has a very different looking profile, as he ranks in the 89th percentile for pitching run value, 92nd percentile of fastball run value and 80th percentile in breaking run value. This Tigers offense has been a middling one in terms of both their output and batted ball profile so far, but I trust Lugo’s ability to confuse them with his ridiculous six-pitch mix. Give me the underdogs at +115.
Blue Jays at Brewers Under 7.5 (+100, Fanatics)
TrendsCenter Trend: When Chad Patrick has started Brewers games and Milwaukee’s moneyline has been +150 or shorter, the under has gone 19-4 (82.61%, +14.6 units, 57.71% ROI).
Chad Patrick (1-0, 0.73 ERA) has been sensational out of the gates for the Brewers (8-7). Despite throwing 74, 86 and 50 pitches (and acting as a bulk reliever in his last appearance against the Nationals), he’s allowed just one earned run through 12.1 innings pitched. Boasting a decent bullpen once again (3.74 ERA), Milwaukee will likely rely on them to shut the door after Patrick leaves the game. Toronto’s offense has gotten out of the gates with a very slow start, averaging just 3.8 runs per game (6th-worst in MLB), so their form is not in a great spot.
Dylan Cease (0-0, 2.46 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Jays (6-9). He’s been utterly dominant (1.69 FIP) with 26 strikeouts in 14.2 innings pitched so far and his Baseball Savant profile is as red as a fire truck. He ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in Fastball Velo, Average Exit Velo, Whiff %, K% and Hard-Hit % among other stellar numbers. Based on how he’s looked, I certainly want to be on this side of the total. Give me the under at +100.
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