Early NCAAF Week 0 & NFL Week 1 Trend Analysis

TrendsCenter: Since 2022, before Week 10, when unranked opponents have met on Saturday at 8:00pm ET or later, the under has gone 77-38-3 (66.96%, +35.2u, 27.12% ROI) when the total has been between 50 and 60.

Is this a trend to tail with under 58.5 points or a trap to fade with over 58.5 points?

This is a trend to tail.

In his first year at the helm of UNLV, Dan Mullen led the Rebels to a 10-4 record and they finished 6-8 to the O/U. Coming off a season in which they averaged 203.1 rushing yards, 446.4 total yards and 34 points per game, the Rebels brought in former Oklahoma and Auburn QB Jackson Arnold, but running back Jai’Den Thomas will be the star. He ran for over 1,000 yards with 12 touchdowns last year and former Utah back Jaylon Glover will also be a factor like he was last season. What worked last year is the run game and that should be the focus once again, especially since Arnold has not proven to be a capable gunslinger and the receiving corps saw complete turnover from last season. Last year’s defense was decent, but amazing at stopping teams on third down. Not only did they hold teams to convert just 33% of their third-down attempts, but seven opponents converted 30% or under. They also forced 24 turnovers. 

This will be Memphis HC Charles Huff’s third school in three seasons as he led Marshall to a 10-3 record in 2024 before Southern Miss to a 7-5 mark in 2025 before taking the Tigers job. Ryan Silverfield led Memphis to an 8-5 mark last year before leaving for Arkansas. Almost this entire team is made up of transfers and 12 players arrived from Huff’s last stop at Southern Miss, but this is essentially a Sun Belt team playing in the American Athletic Conference. Nonetheless, Memphis’ 22 starters will likely come through the transfer portal. Offensive Coordinator Kevin Decker runs a run-heavy offensive scheme and led Old Dominion to some solid numbers with that philosophy last season, ranking 14th in total offense despite passing the ball 38.29% of the time (11th-lowest mark in FBS). It remains to be seen whether Air Noland, Marcus Stokes or Denzel Gardner starts at QB (I expect it to be Noland), but all three are dual-threat options with running ability. I expect the clock to run when they have the football. Keep an eye on transfer Dallan Hayden, who spent two years at Ohio State and then two at Colorado before landing with the Tigers. Defensive Coordinator Lance Guidry worked with LSU’s great defense last year and will feature multiple players from a Southern Miss team that forced three or more turnovers in seven different games last year with 23 interceptions on the season. I expect a ground-heavy offensive attack and a surprisingly cohesive defensive group for the Tigers. 

I expect both teams to come out with a somewhat basic, run-heavy offensive game plans and I don’t think either defense is going to be bad. The clock should run and I trust the historical profitability of this system.

TrendsCenter: Since 1998, Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 or more points have gone 52-21-1 ATS (71.23%, +28.9u, 35.5% ROI) when the total has been 42 points or higher. 

Is this a trend to tail with the Cardinals +10.5 or a trap to fade with the Chargers -10.5?

This is a trend to tail. 

Will John Harbaugh and the Chargers presumably be a playoff team and a threat this season? Yes. Are they better than the Cardinals on paper? Also yes. But are they worthy of being 10.5-point Week 1 favorites over them? That’s the question and I think the answer is pretty clearly “no”.

Former Rams OC Mike LaFleur took over as the HC of the Cardinals and I’m really excited to see what he cooks up with Jacoby Brissett at QB, prized rookie Jeremiyah Love at running back with both Tyler Allgeier and James Conner spelling him, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson at wideout and Trey McBride at tight end. These skill position players are sneakily very good and I expect this team to be backdoor cover artists all season since their defense is projected to be pretty bad. Last year, Arizona went 6-11 ATS, but this coaching change should be transformative, so I’m willing to essentially throw that out. 

Last year, the Chargers went 8-9-1 ATS and return a solid defense and what should be a revamped new-look offense with guru Mike McDaniel as the new OC. The outside zone run game and play-action attack should open things up for Justin Herbert downfield and he’ll be surrounded with an above-average group of playmakers. Oronde Gadsden and David Njoku at tight end will be one of the best positional duos in the sport, but I’m not sold on the receiving corps of Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Tre’ Harris. The running back room of Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell is above average, but it’s tough to foresee this team absolutely blowing out a Week 1 opponent by 11 or more. 

This is about respect and I’m going to give LaFleur and his new regime that respect in Arizona to kick off the new year.