TrendsCenter: Over the last 35 years, in Week 1, home favorites of 3-points or less have gone 19-1 ATS (95%, +17.9u, 81.36% ROI) against teams who were above .500 last season when the total has been between 45 and 49.

How about a Week 1 system pick? I’m going to say that this is a trend to tail and I’m excited to see what this Vikings team does with Kyler Murray under center in Kevin O’Connell’s system. J.J. McCarthy’s inexperience limited Minnesota’s upside last season and I expect a major bounce back from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson in the passing game as well as a huge year from Minnesota in the running game with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones running behind an improved o-line with a new run game coaching staff. I’m also very high on this Vikings defense under DC Brian Flores. 

An important number for the Packers is 27. Last season, when they scored 27 or more points, they went 8-0-1. When they didn’t, they went 1-7. That one win happened to come against these Vikings, who were hurt by McCarthy going 12-19 for 87 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in a non-existent aerial attack. Expect Flores to put pressure and exotic looks on Jordan Love, who will be throwing to essentially the same core of weapons. The value is on Minnesota’s side as a 1.5-point home favorite and I’m happy to back this 19-1 ATS trend.