MLB Best Bets for Friday April 17, 2026

Another week has flown by and I’m ready to attack Friday’s MLB slate using TrendsCenter data. I’m off to a hot start (17-6, 73.91%, +9.49 units) to the season and hope you’ve been tailing! This is also the perfect time to get access to Premium data on the TrendsCenter app. The NBA and NHL Playoffs are here and MLB season is rolling on - grab a free trial on any Premium subscription now!

💵 Best Price: Atlanta -108 (@FDSportsbook)

🧢 Probables: Martin Perez (0-1, 3.14 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker (1-2, 7.36 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter System: Over the last seven years, road favorites of -145 or shorter with a day or more of rest with a winning streak greater than one game have gone 97-42 SU (69.78%, +44.83 units, 25.6% ROI) when the total has been greater than 8.0.

📊 TrendsCenter Trend: Over the last five years, when the Braves have been on the road with a moneyline between +150 and -300 in series openers after scoring more than two runs in their last game and the total is greater than 7.0, Atlanta has gone 55-29 SU (65.48%, +16.01 units, 13.07% ROI).

With a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. spearheading their lineup once again, the Braves have looked dominant at the plate in 2026, averaging 5.58 runs per game, 2nd in the Majors behind only the Dodgers. That spells trouble for Taijuan Walker, who has allowed a slash line of .303/.398/.494 to active Braves hitters in 89 career at-bats against them. Walker has looked bad to start the new year, allowing 21 hits and 12 earned runs (four home runs) in 14.2 innings against the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks through three starts. His Baseball Savant profile suggests he shouldn’t even be starting at this level at this point. After he exits, he will give way to a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA (4.66). Therefore, it’s easy to project Atlanta to hang some crooked numbers on the scoreboard once again.

Meanwhile, Martin Perez continues to deliver serviceable starts at age 35. He’s giving up soft contact with his five-pitch mix and should be able to avoid an implosion against Philly’s lineup that ranks 20th with 4.0 runs scored per game. When he leaves, he will hand the ball off to a bullpen that currently ranks 5th in ERA (3.06) and 1st in WHIP (1.08) so far. What’s crazy is that Acuna and Austin Riley have not gotten off to good starts and that Atlanta has still outscored teams by 44 runs. Give me the Braves on the moneyline in this divisional matchup.

💵 Best Price: Detroit +110 (Fanatics)

🧢 Probables: Casey Mize (1-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. Ranger Suarez (1-1, 5.02 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter System: Coming off a road game, road underdogs with a better winning percentage than their opponents who allow less runs per game than the league average at the time of the game have gone 211-178 (54.24%, +74.15 units, 18.88% ROI) over the last eight years.

📊 TrendsCenter Trend: Since 2024, the Tigers have gone 35-17 SU (67.31%, +17.58 units, 13.07% ROI) against AL East opponents when Detroit’s moneyline is +140 or shorter.

Mize throws a mix of five pitches, but it’s his offspeed arsenal that has set him apart early on. In fact, per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 95th percentile of MLB pitchers in Offspeed Run Value. Therefore, Red Sox hitters should get ready to see a heavy dose of quality splitters, sliders, and slurves. He also throws a sinker and his goal is to induce ground balls or weak contact. Boston’s lineup has hit ground balls 47.8% of the time this season, 2nd-most in the Majors, en route to 4.28 runs per game (T16th). Detroit’s bullpen ranks in the Top 10 in ERA (3.57) and this Red Sox lineup doesn’t scare me at the moment.

After back-to-back bad starts to his Red Sox career, Suarez pitched a gem against the Cardinals last time out, but Detroit’s lineup ranks 11th in OBP (.330) against left-handed pitching and despite their middling 3.95 ERA, Boston’s bullpen has some major question marks. Coming off back-to-back three-game series sweeps against the Marlins and Royals, the Tigers enter this contest on a six-game winning streak and have won in a variety of ways, in close one-run low-scoring affairs or even when they had to score 10 runs like yesterday. These squads are going in opposite directions and I’m happy to back the road underdog

💵 Best Price: Arizona -142 (FanDuel)

🧢 Probables: Michael Soroka (3-0, 2.87 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (1-2, 7.82 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter System: Since the start of last season, home favorites of -150 or shorter on a winning streak of two or more games have gone 17-5 SU (77.27%, +10.86 units, 37.77% ROI) in Friday night series openers after 7:00pm ET when the total is 8.0 runs or higher.

📊 TrendsCenter System: Since the start of 2024, home favorites who won as underdogs in their last game playing a team with a win percentage of 54% or less with a total of 6.5 or higher have gone 177-94 SU (65.31%, +45.7 units, 11.39% ROI).

One of the most surprising aspects of the new season has been Toronto’s inability to score runs. In fact, they rank 25th in runs scored per game (3.94) and only scored a single run in back-to-back losses heading into this matchup against Soroka and Arizona’s bullpen. Soroka is off to a surprisingly-dominant start, allowing 13 hits and five earned runs in 15.2 innings while striking out 23. That included two different 10-strikeout performances and Arizona has won all three of his starts against quality opponents (Tigers, Braves, Phillies). Soroka’s breaking run value and offspeed run value metrics at Baseball Savant rank in the 87th and 89th percentiles and based on how he’s looked in comparison to how terrible this Jays lineup has looked early on, it’s easy to believe he has an edge.

The D-Backs rank 15th in runs scored per game (4.37) and will face Lauer and a middling Toronto bullpen (4.52 ERA). With the lone exception of inducing somewhat soft contact, Lauer has struggled across the board and his full profile looks brutally bad. Arizona ranks 4th in average (.280), 5th in slugging (.420) and 8th in OPS (.747) against southpaws, so the matchup against Lauer doesn’t scare me at all. Fading Toronto seems like a smart idea once again