🎯 BY THE NUMBERS
🔥 Tail: Yankees ML at Royals (-144, Kalshi)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since August 30, 2016, the Yankees have gone 13-3 (81.25%, +9.37u, 46.04% ROI) against the Royals on the road with a moneyline of -150 or shorter.
⚾ Probables: Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Noah Cameron (2-3, 4.72 ERA)
While Cole didn’t miss bats in his season debut against the Rays last time out, he was utterly dominant, allowing just two hits in 6.0 shutout innings with two strikeouts and three walks with 72 pitches thrown. Posting a 0.84 ERA in three career starts in Kansas City, this moneyline is simply priced wrong for a starter who looks like the Cy Young version of himself against a clearly-inferior opponent.
Unfortunately for Noah Cameron, the Yankees rank first in Slugging and 2nd in OPS against left-handed pitching this season, which spells trouble for the southpaw. There are warning signs all over his pitching profile, most notably his hard-hit rate (22nd percentile), barrel rate (18th percentile) and ground ball rate (14th percentile). I expect New York to hang crooked numbers once again in this one.
📈 OVER OR UNDER?
🔥 Tail: Astros at Rangers u7.5 (+104, Kalshi)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since August 9, 2025, the under has gone 7-1 (87.5%, +5.9u, 67.05% ROI) with Jacob deGrom pitching for the Rangers at home.
⚾ Probables: Mike Burrows (2-6, 5.75 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (3-4, 3.86 ERA)
After getting no-hit on Monday night, the Rangers put up eight runs in the first inning on Tuesday night. Weird, right? That’s baseball, I guess. Anyhow, let’s not ignore how terrible this Texas team has been at the plate on their home field: the worst in the entire MLB at under three runs a game. Therefore, it’ll take some holding your nose backing Astros pitching (their bullpen is the worst in the Majors), but Mike Burrows (4.11 xERA) has been a little unlucky.
Meanwhile, deGrom’s splits have been pretty wild so far. He’s pitched to a 6.00 ERA on the road but an elite 1.14 ERA at home, including a seven-inning, three-hit, 10-strikeout shutout gem against the Cubs in his last outing at Globe Life. The former Cy Young winner’s profile looks great: his chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate all rank in the top 90th percentile. Give me the under at +104, especially after last night’s total soared over easily.
🚀 TREND OF THE DAY
🔥 Tail: Phillies ML at Padres (-138, Kalshi)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since August 29, 2024, the Phillies have gone 36-15 (70.59%, +15.05u, 17.56% ROI) with Cristopher Sanchez starting.
⚾ Probables: Cristopher Sanchez (5-2, 1.62 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (3-2, 5.05 ERA)
Through four starts in May, Sanchez hasn’t allowed a single earned run, spanning 32.0 innings. In that span, he’s recorded 36 strikeouts compared to three walks and has allowed only 19 hits. Dating back further, his scoreless streak is now up to 37.2 innings. Firmly in the NL Cy Young race, Sanchez has been a stable source of quality pitching for years, as the trend above proves. The Padres have hit an MLB-low five homers against lefties this season and own the 3rd-worst average, 2nd-worst on-base percentage, 3rd-worst slugging percentage and 2nd-worst OPS against that handedness. Therefore, he has a great chance to keep the dominance rolling.
With low chase and whiff rates, Buehler has a 15th percentile xBA and 30th percentile xERA and gets a very tough matchup against a dangerous Phillies lineup that can hang crooked numbers on anyone. This is a good ol’ fashioned pitching mismatch and I love the idea of getting a -138 price over on Kalshi.
🪤 TRAP OF THE DAY
❌ Fade: Twins ML at White Sox (+102, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2023, teams against the White Sox have gone 333-176 (65.42%, +63.27u, 7.14% ROI) with a total between 6.5 and 10.0.
⚾ Probables: Davis Martin (7-1, 2.04 ERA) vs. Connor Prielipp (1-2, 4.03 ERA)
This year’s White Sox team is completely different than the laughingstock roster that was trotted out the last few years. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas have shown off their power and revitalized the lineup, but Davis Martin has led Chicago to nine wins in his 10 starts so far and the one time he didn’t, he allowed just two earned runs in seven innings in a 2-0 loss. Ranking in the 95th percentile of Pitching Run Value on Baseball Savant, he grades out as an elite starter and is pitching like a true ace.
While I’m a fan of Prielipp, he’s not quite ready to make a positive impact at this level. Posting a negative Pitching Run Value, he essentially has a below-average profile across the board. Minnesota has lost three of his last four starts and the Sox have been one of the best teams in the entire MLB against left-handed pitching. I’ll back the White Sox at -120 on the moneyline and will be fading this multi-year system despite the profitability.