Thursday's MLB slate features a mix of afternoon getaway games and intriguing evening matchups, creating plenty of opportunities to separate strong betting trends from misleading ones. Using TrendsCenter, I'll break down an active trend for each game on the board and determine whether it's a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading. Let’s get into it.

⏱️ Time: 1:10pm ET

🧢 Probables: Hunter Dobbins (1-0, 2.77 ERA) vs. Christian Scott (2-0, 2.50 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2025, when moneylines are between +150 and -170 in the third game of a series starting before 5:00pm ET, the under has gone 337-270-26 (55.52%, +40u, 5.74% ROI).

🎯 Active on: Under 9.0 runs.

✅ My Take: Trend to tail. This will be Dobbins’ fourth appearance of the season for the Cardinals and he was just recalled from Triple-A, where he went 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA through nine starts. He should be able to get through four or five innings. Christian Scott hasn’t yet completed six innings as a starter, but he’s been consistent and hasn’t allowed over three earned runs in any of his eight outings. At this early time, I expect some guys to get days off and some watered-down lineups, which should also favor the under.

⏱️ Time: 1:10pm ET

🧢 Probables: Merrill Kelly (5-4, 5.71 ERA) vs. Tyler Phillips (0-1, 2.08 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2024, when the D-Backs have played in a game with an 8.5-run total, the over has gone 72-39 (64.86%, +29.1u, 23.83% ROI).
🎯 Active on: Over 8.5 runs.

❌ My Take: Trap to fade. Merrill Kelly has been way better on the road (4.50 ERA) than at home (7.66 ERA) and has also been much better during the day (4.25 ERA) than at night (7.22 ERA), which are stark differences. Now on the road during the day, this should be a comfortable spot for him against a Marlins lineup that lacks pop. Tyler Phillips is now fully stretched out for the Marlins and while he likely will max out around 5.0 innings, this D-Backs lineup is in bad form at the moment and has struggled on the road. I’ll take under 8.5 runs.

⏱️ Time: 1:10pm ET

🧢 Probables: Zebby Matthews (2-3, 4.15 ERA) vs. Keider Montero (2-4, 3.95 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2023, AL Central teams facing each other with a total between 7.5 and 9.0 have gone 205-146-12 to the under (58.4%, +44.4u, 11.12% ROI).

🎯 Active on: Under 9.0 runs.

❌ My Take: Trap to fade. Both of these pitchers have some negative regression coming. Zebby Matthews has allowed hard contact, a high barrel rate, a low ground ball rate and below-average swing-and-miss stuff, which could spell trouble sooner rather than later, even against a generally-weak Tigers lineup. Keider Montero is in the same boat. While he ranks in the 83rd percentile in Pitching Run Value so far, per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 3rd percentile in Whiff %, 6th percentile in Chase % and 15th percentile in K % and also has troubling numbers in Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, Hard-Hit % and Ground Ball %. Both offenses could put up crooked numbers in this one and I’ll take over 9.0 runs.

⏱️ Time: 3:10pm ET

🧢 Probables: Edward Cabrera (3-3, 4.99 ERA) vs. Ryan Feltner (2-1, 4.22 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2016, Rockies home games that started before 7:00pm ET with a total of 11.5 or lower have gone 183-134-8 to the under (57.73%, +35.6u, 9.96% ROI).

🎯 Active on: Under 11.5.

❌ My Take: Trap to fade. Edward Cabrera has fallen off the map and has a -5 Pitching Run Value (15th percentile) per Baseball Savant. Most alarmingly, he has a 4th percentile Barrel % and 5th percentile Average Exit Velo. His fastball velocity is there and he gets some decent swings and misses, but when contact made, it’s usually hard, which is a problem at Coors Field. Don’t let Ryan Feltner’s decent 4.22 ERA fool you. He has a 5.67 xERA (8th percentile) and is a disaster waiting to happen with a low strikeout rate, very low chase rate and very high hard-hit and barrel rates. Give me over 11.5.

⏱️ Time: 6:40pm ET

🧢 Probables: Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.62 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (5-3, 4.81 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2022, when the Dodgers have been priced between +100 and -150 on the moneyline, they’ve gone 142-83 (63.11%, +36.66u, 12.68% ROI).

🎯 Active on: Dodgers -150.

✅ My Take: Trend to tail. The Dodgers have a somewhat reasonable price on the moneyline in this one, which makes them an auto-tail, in my opinion. Justin Wrobleski has been their best starter all year and owns a 98th percentile Pitching Run Value, which is among the best starters in the Majors. Mitch Keller should struggle in this one. Not only will he go up against the best lineup in the sport, but he has a negative Pitching Run Value (37th percentile). This doesn’t need much more analysis.

⏱️ Time: 7:00pm ET

🧢 Probables: Bryan Woo (5-4, 3.74 ERA) vs. Kyle Bradish (3-7, 3.89 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: In Bryan Woo’s career starts after 7:00pm ET, the Mariners have gone 27-14 on the ML (65.85%, +9.68u, 16.26% ROI).

🎯 Active on: Mariners -110.

❌ My Take: Trap to fade. Bryan Woo’s profile is a quality one. He ranks in the 96th percentile of Pitching Run Value, rarely walks anyone, gets hitters to chase pitches and has even gotten a bit unlucky out on the mound as his 2.93 xERA (84th percentile) indicates. However, he gives up a lot of hard contact. Guess which team leads the Majors in Hard Hit %? That’s right: the Orioles (43.4%). Baltimore also averages 4.97 runs per game at home so far, 5th-best in the Majors. Woo has also been much worse on the road (1-4, 5.08 ERA) than at home (4-0, 2.37 ERA), so I’m comfortable taking a shot on the O’s with Kyle Bradish on the mound against a middling Seattle offense. Give me the Orioles -110.

⏱️ Time: 7:40pm ET

🧢 Probables: Martin Perez (4-3, 3.02 ERA) vs. Anthony Kay (5-1, 4.40 ERA)

📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2023, favorites have gone 319-156 on the ML (67.16%, +58.18u, 6.72% ROI) against the White Sox.

🎯 Active on: Braves -117.

✅ My Take: Trend to tail. While this White Sox team is certainly more dangerous than the ones that played in recent seasons, I’m going to back the Braves in this game. Martin Perez has shown the ability to pitch five or six quality innings before handing things over to one of the best bullpens in the entire Majors. Also, this matchup against White Sox lefty Anthony Kay is one I want to take advantage of. His 4.40 ERA is a sham; he’s gotten very lucky and has a ton of alarming aspects of his profile, including an inability to miss bats and limit hard contact. Missing Ronald Acuna is an issue for Atlanta, but they have plenty of other guys that can mash left-handed pitching. I’m going to back them in this spot.