Red Sox at Rays u7.5 (-115, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: Over the last 22 years, when the Rays have faced left-handed starters at home with a total between 7.5 and 9.5, the under has gone 230-167-15 (57.93%, +46.3u, 10.22% ROI).
Probables: Payton Tolle (3-2, 2.28 ERA) vs. Nick Martinez (5-2, 2.29 ERA)
Payton Tolle has been awesome this season. He hasn’t gotten run support, but he ranks in the 97th percentile in xERA (2.31) per Baseball Savant, 92nd percentile in xBA (.191) and 89th percentile in Pitching Run Value. Across the board, his pitching profile is elite and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start this season.
Nick Martinez has also been elite for the Rays. Sporting a 88th percentile Pitching Run Value, he’s a low-strikeout guy, but has limited hard hits. His profile suggests that some negative regression could come soon, but this Red Sox lineup is weak. With the lone exception of his last start, he hadn’t allowed over two earned runs in any start this season. The under is where I want to be on this one.
Braves ML at White Sox (-150, Kalshi)
📊 TrendsCenter: Over the last year, the Braves have gone 8-2 (80%, +5.6u, 44.12% ROI) with Grant Holmes starting on the road.
Probables: Grant Holmes (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (1-5, 4.94 ERA)
Unfortunately for Erick Fedde, the Braves know him well from his time with the Nationals and have 111 cumulative at-bats against him. Like the pitchers in the last game, he has an abysmal profile with 2nd percentile whiff rate, 4th percentile K rate and 6th percentile chase rate. He also is a fly ball pitcher who gives up hard contact. With a 7th percentile Pitching Run Value, the Braves have a great opportunity to light him up at the plate.
Grant Holmes has been consistent all year long, allowing three or less earned runs in all of his starts but one. He should be able to give Atlanta five or six quality innings before turning things over to the best bullpen in the Majors. Give me Atlanta’s moneyline.
Astros at Angels u8.5 (-105, Bet365)
📊 TrendsCenter: Over the last 4 years, when the Astros have been road favorites after 7pm ET, the under has gone 55-23-2 (70.51%, +29.7u, 33.75% ROI).
Probables: Kai-Wei Teng (3-4, 3.06 ERA) vs. Walbert Urena (3-4, 2.68 ERA)
Kai-Wei Teng has limited hard hits with his elite breaking balls (98th percentile in breaking run value) and has a 2.57 ERA on the road. Most importantly, he’s dominated right-handed hitters, allowing a .156/.235/.208 slash line against that handedness. The Angels’ power bats are mostly on that side, so he should be able to navigate through the lineup. Houston’s bullpen is God-awful and always a risk to blow the game, but Josh Hader is back from his injury and should stabilize things a bit.
Walbert Urena has been one of the bright spots for LA this season and has a very solid profile across the board, ranking in the top third of most important Baseball Savant categories. His 89th percentile ground ball rate is elite and his mix of changeups, sinkers, four seamers and sweepers has kept hitters off balance. I’m a believer in his stuff and will back the under.