📊 TrendsCenter: This season, the Rays have gone 9-1 on the ML (90%, +8.93u) against American League opponents with Nick Martinez starting.

⚾ Probables: Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (3-7, 4.79 ERA)

The Rays have been not one of the best, but the best home team in the Majors this season at 33-14 in Tampa Bay. Not only that, but they hold the best record against American League opponents at 38-20.

As the trend above proves, Nick Martinez has been sensational against the AL, guiding his team to a 9-1 mark in his 10 starts against the league. Holding an 87th percentile Pitching Run Value per Baseball Savant, he also holds a 99th percentile Offspeed Run Value and 86th percentile Fastball Run Value and has avoided free passes (98th percentile BB %) and hard contact (84th percentile Hard-Hit % and 80th percentile Avg Exit Velo). The Mariners rank 23rd in road OPS, average the 6th-lowest runs scored per game (4.09) as the away team and are at a distinct disadvantage in this setting.

Overall, Martinez has been one of the best stories of the entire season. In the winter, the Rays signed him as a back-end rotation piece who could also be used as a long reliever if needed. However, he’s arguably an All-Star snub and was one of the best free agent signings, recording three earned runs or less in 16 of his 17 starts while ranking third in the AL among qualified starters in ERA (2.61).

The biggest change from past seasons to this one: his changeup has been outstanding. Switching his grip from a circle-change to a vulcan-change has completely transformed his arsenal, bolstering his whiff rate on the pitch from 17% to 38%.

Against that pitch this season, the Mariners own a 33.0% whiff rate, 29.5% Hard Hit %, .244 xBA and .390 xSLG, all of which are weak numbers. Seattle also owns the lowest Zone Contact % in the Majors, which is another weak spot that favors Martinez and Tampa’s bullpen.

At this point, Luis Castillo is a below average MLB starter despite a short run of success that he’s had over his last seven appearances (2.72 ERA in that span). He ranks in the 27th percentile in Pitching Run Value with a number of very troubling metrics behind it, including a 13th percentile Hard-Hit %, 16th percentile Avg Exit Velo and 28th percentile Barrel %. Outside of Junior Caminero, the Rays may not have a “slugger” in their lineup, but they rank a respectable 10th in runs per game at home (4.8) and know how to generate scoring, even if they need to use small ball techniques.

Not only that, but the Rays put the ball in play. For example, they have the MLB’s lowest Whiff % (20.2) and highest Chase Contact % (68.2) by huge margins.

Overall, I think there’s a ton of value grabbing this moneyline at -104 to -110 across the industry.