🚨 Guardians ML vs. Tigers (-106, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2024, the Guardians have gone 25-5 on the ML (83.33%, +20.09u, 51.34% ROI) with Tanner Bibee starting against AL Central opponents.
📊 TrendsCenter: Since April 19 of this season, teams have gone 8-2 (80%, +5.77u, 49.11% ROI) against the Tigers with Jack Flaherty starting.
Tanner Bibee (1-7, 4.09 ERA) will start for the Guardians (37-33) at home. Cleveland has gone 17-17 on their home field this season. The righty was brilliant in his last outing against the Tigers in Detroit, going 8.0 innings while allowing just one earned run on four hits with five strikeouts and a walk en route to a 3-2 win in 10 innings. Bibee is coming off his best performance of the season, a three-hit shutout in 8.0 innings against the Rangers in Texas. That shockingly ended a 13-start individual winless streak. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t pitched well enough to win games this season, though. The Guardians gave him just one or zero runs of support in 10 of his first 13 starts of the year and I’m not at all worried about his ability to navigate through this weak Tigers lineup.
Jack Flaherty (1-7, 5.31 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Tigers (29-40) on the road. Detroit has gone an abysmal 11-24 on the road this season. With a -9 Pitching Run Value on Baseball Savant (7th percentile), he ranks in the 1st percentile (worst) of Breaking Run Value, 5th percentile in Hard-Hit % and 7th percentile in Average Exit Velo, among others. His profile is troubling, to say the least. The Guardians should be able to make some things happen against him in this one.
Considering both trends above as well, I’m firmly on the Guardians in this one.