TrendsCenter: Since the start of 2025, teams that score more runs per game than the league average playing the Rockies in games that start after 8pm ET with an O/U of 9.5 or below have gone 29-3 on the ML (90.63%, +22.52u, 26.62% ROI).

Probables: Tomoyuki Sugano (8-4, 4.41 ERA) vs. Taj Bradley (6-3, 4.11 ERA)

Tomoyuki Sugano has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the entire Majors this season. Ranking in the 1st percentile in xERA (6.98), xBA (.309) and Barrel % (14.3%), he also ranks in the 2nd percentile in K % (13.7%), 3rd percentile in Whiff % (17.6%) along with 10th percentile in Hard-Hit % (45.3%), 12th percentile in Chase % (25.9%) and 15th percentile in Average Exit Velo (90.6), among other horrendous advanced stats.

Taj Bradley has struggled giving up hard hits, but essentially grades out as an average-to-below-average starting pitcher but has been more effective at home and has an above-average K % (25.4%). 

Both offenses rank in the bottom third of the league in Hard Hit %, but the Twins rank in the top half in Barrel % while the Rockies rank dead-last in Average Exit Velocity. Susceptible to pitchers who consistently post strikeouts, the Rockies also own the MLB’s top Chase % and highest Swing % as the most undisciplined lineup in the sport. I like picking on Colorado away from Coors Field and this is no exception. 

Colorado has gone just 14-27 on the road and while the Twins have gone just 20-22 in Minnesota, there’s still an edge there. Before getting swept by the Dodgers in three games (including two one-run losses), the Twinkies had won six of their last seven contests, so they’ll look to get back on the right track against an inferior opponent. I’ll back the Twins to get the job done and notch the W.