MLB POTD For Friday May 29, 2026

On this beautiful Friday slate, we’re going to pick on three pitchers that have been awful lately. I want to show that in addition to the long-term systems and trends that you can find at TrendsCenter, you can also research and identify more granular, short-term data points as well, as you’ll see if you keep reading. Let’s get right to bullying these pitchers.

📊 TrendsCenter: Opponents vs. Chris Paddack have gone 7-0 (100%, +7.33u, 72% ROI) over his last seven starts. Paddack’s teams have gone 1-8 when he’s pitched so far this season.

⚾ Probables: Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.78 ERA) vs. Chris Paddack (0-6, 6.86 ERA)

After a terrible start for the Marlins, the Reds decided to give Chris Paddack a shot and he allowed three earned runs in 5.0 innings in his team debut on Saturday en route to an 8-1 loss to the Cardinals. It’s been a horrendous start to the year for the veteran righty and now he will have to take on a dangerous Braves lineup. He went 4.2 innings and allowed two earned on five hits with four strikeouts against Atlanta back on April 15 as a member of Miami (a 6-3 loss), but the Braves should smack him around in this one. Atlanta ranks 1st in average, 1st in slugging and 2nd in OPS against right-handed pitching this season and now find themselves in one of the best hitting venue in baseball at Great American Ballpark. While Paddack’s 4.45 FIP suggests that he’s gotten a bit unlucky (as does his .353 BABIP), I still love the Braves at the plate in this one. Cincinnati’s bullpen has the 4th-worst ERA (4.92) in the MLB as well.

Grant Holmes has been consistent for the Braves all season long and only gave up more than three earned runs once in 10 starts so far. His FIP suggests some negative regression could come into play at some point, but the Braves have an elite bullpen (3rd in ERA) to back him up if he falters. I don’t trust this Cincinnati offense whatsoever and I see Atlanta with a clear edge in all phases of this matchup. Give me their moneyline.

📊 TrendsCenter: Teams have gone 6-0 (100%, +6.61u, 96.22% ROI) against Trevor Rogers over his last six starts dating back to April 14.

⚾ Probables: Connor Seabold (1-0, 3.45 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.96 ERA)

After dazzling in 2025, Trevor Rogers entered this season as Baltimore’s ace with high expectations. He delivered out of the gates, rattling off three solid performances which led to three Orioles wins. However, since then, he’s been terrible. As you can see in the graphic above, he struggled, spent a brief stint on the IL with the flu, and has not been effective since returning either, as the O’s have lost six consecutive starts. Individually, he’s picked up six straight losses on his record, too. His fastball’s effectiveness has fallen off the map and his secondary pitches have all dipped as well due to his inability to get outs with his FB. His FIP suggests that he’s gotten a bit unlucky and the Jays have struggled against lefties this season, but it’s tough to ignore how bad he’s been.

The Jays just traded for Connor Seabold and he will pick up a spot start as a bulk reliever in this spot. He owns a 1-0 record and 3.45 ERA from his 15.2 IP with the Tigers this season and five of his 11 outings have gone more than an inning, so he should be able to get some outs for Toronto. The Jays have an average bullpen that’ll be deployed after Seabold, but I’m high on Toronto’s lineup putting up some crooked numbers in this matchup. Give me them at -108.

📊 TrendsCenter: Opposing teams have gone 8-3 (72.73%, +2.72u, 13.86% ROI) against the Rockies with Michael Lorenzen starting this season, including 5-0 in his last five starts.

⚾ Probables: Logan Webb (2-4, 5.06 ERA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (2-7, 7.21 ERA)

There’s no denying that Logan Webb’s numbers don’t look like his, but let’s pump the brakes for a second. He has a 3.53 FIP and 3.35 xFIP and should see some positive regression coming his way sooner rather than later. While pitching at Coors Field is never an exciting idea for any pitcher, the edge is obviously on San Francisco’s side on the mound.

The real story here is how terrible Michael Lorenzen is on his home field. With a 1-3 record through five starts, he’s posted a 10.03 ERA and has allowed a .414 BAA with the following line at Coors Field: 23.1 IP, 46 H, 27 R, 26 ER, 5 HR, 11 BB, 16 K. For comparison, on the road, he’s pitched to a 5.04 ERA through 30.1 IP. While the Giants have been terrible at the plate this season, they’ve shown the ability to hang some crooked numbers in certain matchups, posting 8, 10 and 10 runs in different games over the span of the last 10 contests. Lorenzen is not an MLB-caliber pitcher and I expect San Francisco to fully take advantage of that fact.

For historical trends and systems and the ability to create your own (just like I did in this article), open the TrendsCenter app now!