🔥 Reds ML vs. Royals (-170, Kalshi)
⚾ Probables: Chase Burns (7-1, 1.96 ERA) vs. Luinder Avila (0-2, 5.06 ERA)
📊 TrendsCenter: Home teams have gone 20-7 (74.04%, +11.48u) against the Royals this season.
Chase Burns has pitched himself into the NL Cy Young Award mix and the Reds have rattled off six wins in his last seven starts. He’s been incredibly consistent all year and with the exception of one bad start against the Angels in early April, he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in all of his starts. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 98th percentile of Breaking Run Value, 95th percentile of Fastball Run Value, 94th percentile of Pitching Run Value and also ranks in the 94th percentile of average Fastball Velo, 93rd percentile of Whiff %, 87th percentile of K %, 87th percentile in xBA and 84th percentile of xERA. He will be in a great spot to dominate once again in this one; not only do the Royals rank 2nd-worst in runs scored per game (3.75), but they’re dead last by a gigantic margin on the road (3.07).
Luinder Avila is stretched out and should operate as essentially a bulk reliever for the first few innings for the Royals in this one. He has induced a solid percentage of ground balls and has limited hard hits but has struggled with control and has a 13th percentile Pitching Run Value, per Baseball Savant. After he exits, he will give way to a Royals bullpen that ranks 2nd-worst in ERA (5.14), which spells trouble for them against an above-average Reds offense on their hitter-friendly home ballpark. Give me the Reds, even with the juiced-up moneyline. This should be closer to the -200 range, in my opinion.
🔥 Angels ML vs. Rockies (-186, Kalshi)
⚾ Probables: Jose Soriano (6-4, 2.65 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (1-6, 8.08 ERA)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since the start of last season, opponents have gone 91-30 (75.21%, +28.78u) against the Rockies in games starting after 7pm ET.
This is another juiced moneyline, but like the last one, I don’t think it’s juiced enough. Jose Soriano certainly simmered down a bit after his epic start to the season, but he’s still pitching at an All-Star level and should have no issues carving up a weak Rockies lineup that ranks 4th-worst in OPS on the road. There’s not much more analysis needed here.
At this point in Kyle Freeland’s career, he’s trying to eat up innings for his hometown Rockies. Over his last six starts, he’s done this:
5/25 @ LAD (15-6 L): 4.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, L
5/20 vs. TEX (5-4 L): 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K, ND
5/15 vs. ARI (9-1 L): 3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, L
5/9 @ PHI (9-1 L): 5.0 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, L
5/3 vs. ATL (11-6 L): 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7 K, L
4/28 @ CIN (7-2 L): 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, ND
Ouch. The Angels will be able to throw multiple right-handed power bats in their lineup against him, which should be an issue since he’s allowed 11 of his 12 homers to that handedness so far. The Angels rank 7th in homers and 11th in Slugging Percentage against southpaws this season and should be able to hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one.
🔥 Dodgers ML at Diamondbacks (-144, FanDuel)
⚾ Probables: Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 4.70 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (5-1, 2.31 ERA)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2021, road favorites with a win percentage better than 48% between -125 and -150 on the moneyline vs. divisional opponents with a win percentage less than 63% have gone 245-152 (61.71%, +35.75u) with the total between 7.5 and 10.0.
Emmet Sheehan has led the Dodgers to four straight wins and gets a surprisingly solid matchup against the Diamondbacks, who ranks 27th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. With a 4.03 FIP and 3.28 xFIP, it’s clear that he’s pitched better than his ERA indicates so far and should be backed by runs in this matchup, which I’ll get into in a second.
Eduardo Rodriguez has gotten off to a great start, but let’s keep in mind the types of lineups he’s faced. Sure, his matchups against the Dodgers (in March), Braves and Brewers were difficult matchups, but he’s also faced the Mets (twice), Orioles, White Sox, Pirates, Rockies (twice) and Giants. His Baseball Savant profile tells the true story: his early success has been mostly about luck. In fact, limiting hard hits at a decent clip is his only positive metric across his entire profile right now and his low strikeout (23rd percentile) and whiff (11th percentile) rates should allow the Dodgers to get the bat on the ball. Los Angeles ranks 4th in average, 4th in on-base percentage, 4th in slugging and 4th in OPS against southpaws so far. With a .259 BABIP, 3.70 FIP and 4.19 xFIP, some negative regression is incoming sooner rather than later for E-Rod and I want to get ahead of it.