The Philadelphia Phillies are Thursday's Play of the Day as they host the New York Mets, and despite Aaron Nola's disappointing season, this matchup sets up extremely well for Philadelphia. The Phillies enter the game at 54-43 while the Mets sit at 40-57, and there are several reasons to believe the home team has the edge. Between Christian Scott's underlying regression indicators, the Phillies' ability to punish his pitch mix, and the Mets' continued offensive struggles on the road, Philadelphia is the best bet to come away with the win.
Christian Scott enters Thursday with an impressive-looking 2-1 record and a 3.17 ERA, but his advanced metrics tell a different story. His 4.51 expected ERA ranks in just the 34th percentile, while his 4.10 FIP suggests he's been more fortunate than dominant. Scott's 27.9% strikeout rate is excellent, landing in the 83rd percentile, but the rest of his profile raises concerns. His 27.9% chase rate sits in only the 25th percentile, his 11.2% walk rate ranks in the 20th percentile, and his 32.1% ground-ball rate falls in the seventh percentile. While he has done a respectable job limiting hard contact with a 35% hard-hit rate, the combination of below-average chase ability and shaky command could become a problem against one of baseball's deepest lineups.
That matchup is especially intriguing because Scott throws his four-seam fastball roughly 50% of the time, while mixing in a sweeper (23%) and cutter (18%). The Phillies have several hitters who thrive against four-seam fastballs, led by Bryce Harper with a +15 Run Value and Kyle Schwarber at +11. Edmundo Sosa (+8), Brandon Marsh (+6), Derek Hill (+4), and Trea Turner (+4) have also produced well against the pitch. If Scott falls behind in counts or struggles with command, Philadelphia has multiple hitters capable of making him pay.
Even more encouraging is how consistently the Phillies make quality contact. Philadelphia ranks dead last in weak contact at just 3.6%, meaning they rarely produce soft contact. They also rank tied for fourth in solid contact rate and fifth in Launch Angle Sweet-Spot Percentage, a combination that consistently produces hard-hit balls and extra-base damage. Scott already faced the Phillies on June 27, allowing two earned runs over 4.1 innings while giving up a home run and throwing 82 pitches before exiting with a no-decision. He escaped without taking the loss as the Mets eventually won 6-2, but another short outing feels very possible if his walk issues resurface.
Philadelphia has also been one of the better home offenses in baseball, averaging 4.91 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park, the eighth-best mark in the majors. While the Phillies have been more middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching overall, they own the eighth-best OPS at home and possess enough depth throughout the lineup to capitalize if Scott struggles with traffic on the bases. Although the Mets have won five of Scott's last six starts, that success feels more reflective of team results than Scott's individual performance, and his underlying metrics suggest regression could be coming.
On the other side, Aaron Nola has endured one of the toughest seasons of his career. He's just 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA, owns a -15 Pitching Run Value that ranks in the fourth percentile and is the 15th-worst among approximately 300 qualified pitchers, while his four-seam fastball has been one of the least effective in baseball with a -26 Fastball Run Value, tied for the second-worst among 213 qualified pitchers. His barrel rate ranks in just the 17th percentile, although his 4.67 FIP suggests he has pitched somewhat better than the ERA indicates. Outside of the struggling fastball, much of the rest of Nola's profile grades out around league average or better. His pitch mix features a 34% curveball, 24% four-seam fastball, 20% sinker, and 14% changeup.
Juan Soto remains the biggest concern in this matchup. He owns a career slash line of .357/.438/.500 against Nola with five home runs, nine RBIs, 17 walks, and just 11 strikeouts in 45 at-bats. Soto also grades as New York's best hitter against curveballs, while Carson Benge profiles well against fastballs. However, outside of a handful of dangerous hitters, the Mets' offense has struggled for most of the season. They rank 26th in OPS against right-handed pitching, own the 26th-best OPS on the road, and average just 3.81 runs per game away from home, the second-fewest in Major League Baseball. Nola also faced the Mets on June 18, allowing just two earned runs over five innings while striking out six before the Phillies eventually lost 6-4.
Neither bullpen provides much of an advantage, as both relief units have been fairly average throughout the season. That places even greater importance on the starting pitching matchup and offensive profiles, and those factors lean toward Philadelphia.
The TrendsCenter data strengthens the case even further. Since April 13, the Mets have gone just 3-22 on the moneyline as underdogs against National League opponents. Meanwhile, the Phillies have thrived in this exact situation, going 17-9 on the moneyline this season as home favorites against right-handed starting pitchers, producing a 75.38% win rate, +3.58 units, and a 7.86% ROI.
While Aaron Nola certainly carries some risk, the overall matchup overwhelmingly favors Philadelphia. Christian Scott's advanced metrics point toward regression, the Phillies' lineup is built to attack his pitch mix, and New York's offense has consistently struggled against right-handed pitching and away from home. Add in the strong TrendsCenter system supporting the Phillies in this spot, and Philadelphia stands out as the best bet on Thursday's MLB slate.
Play of the Day: Phillies Moneyline (-130, Fanatics).