⚾ White Sox at Yankees o7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
🧢 Probables: Davis Martin (9-2, 2.41 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (1-1, 2.45 ERA)
📊 TrendsCenter: Since 2000, after the 50th game of the season when two starting pitchers with sub 3.00 ERA’s who allowed two or less runs in their last start met after 7pm ET with a total of 7.5, the OVER has gone 36-20 (64.29%, +14.0u, 22.73% ROI). The system has also won eight times in a row.
📊 TrendsCenter: This season, the White Sox have gone 21-6 to the over (77.78%, +14.4u, 48.48% ROI) when facing a team with a win percentage above .500 with a total between 7.5 and 9.5.
I’ll admit that touting an over with two aces pitching isn’t exactly a fun idea, but the end goal is continuing to find edges and stack wins. Not only are the two trends above active, but the Yankees have gone 16-13-2 (55.2%) to the over at home while the White Sox have gone 21-12-1 (63.6%) to the over on the road.
Gerrit Cole has a very low ground ball percentage (30.2%, 4th percentile) and surprisingly a very low whiff rate (17.9%, 6th percentile) to go along with a 20.2% strikeout rate (35th percentile) so far. While he’s looked sharp overall, his inability to miss bats could be a major plus for the White Sox, who own the highest whiff rate (27.9%) and third-highest strikeout rate (23.8%) in the Majors. Adding in their .172 team ISO (4th-best) and it’s clear this lineup has a ton of pop and could benefit from the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
Not only that, but there’s an interesting narrative in play. After top White Sox prospect Caleb Bonemer hit a home run against Cole in a rehab start with High-A Hudson Valley last month, the Yankees ace hit him in his next at-bat, which caused quite a stir. Could that add some extra incentive for Chicago’s lineup to get some revenge? Possibly.
Davis Martin has mostly been great this season, but recently allowed four and six earned runs in two of his last four starts. His one major knock is that he gives up a lot of hard contact. In fact, he ranks in the 9th percentile with a 46.5% hard hit rate. Sporting a .191 ISO (best in the Majors), the Yankees also rank 1st in barrel rate (10.4%), 2nd in hard hit rate (42.5%) and 2nd in average exit velocity (89.9 mph). Even without Aaron Judge, this lineup is very dangerous and Davis will have a difficult time completely shutting them down.
These two teams rank 4th (Yankees, 5.11) and 7th (White Sox, 4.76) in runs scored per game and I consider 7.5 to be slightly too low of a total. Give me the over.