TrendsCenter: Since April 25, the Brewers have gone 9-2 on the ML (81.82%, +6.16u) with Kyle Harrison Starting

Probables: Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.82 ERA) vs. Michael McGreevy (3-7, 3.12 ERA)

This pitching matchup may look similar in terms of ERA, but these are two very different pitchers.

Kyle Harrison ranks in the 92nd percentile in Baseball Savant’s Pitching Run Value and also ranks in the 87th percentile of xERA and 76th percentile of xBA. His 94th percentile strikeout rate, 80th percentile whiff rate, 78th percentile chase rate, 74th percentile hard hit rate and 72nd percentile barrel rate all paint a beautiful picture.

The Cardinals rank 26th in OPS at home and I like the matchup - he shut them down in 6.0 shutout innings back on May 26.

Michael McGreevey’s advanced profile looks atrocious despite his 3.12 ERA. He ranks in the 4th percentile in xBA, 7th percentile in xERA (5.59), 7th percentile in whiff rate and 10th percentile in strikeout rate.

He has avoided walks and induced ground balls, but I like the Brewers’ offensive upside in this one. In that May 26 matchup, they tagged him for seven hits and five earned runs in just 4.0 innings.

I’ll tail Harrison and the trend in this one. Will you?