White Sox at Giants u7.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Probables: Davis Martin (6-1, 1.61 ERA) vs. Trevor McDonald (2-0, 2.37 ERA)
O/U Records: CHW 28-22-1, SF 22-25-3
TrendsCenter Trend: Since 9/6/24, when the previous White Sox game went over the total, the next game went 56-43-7 to the under (56.57%, +8.7u, 7.46% ROI).
Not only will this game be played at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, but we will get two talented young starters on the mound with Giants (20-30) SP Trevor McDonald (2-0, 2.37 ERA) taking on White Sox (25-24) SP Davis Martin (6-1, 1.61 ERA). While the White Sox (4.45 runs per game, 13th) have been decent offensively all season, the Giants have been the worst offensive team in the sport, averaging just 3.46 runs per contest (dead-last).
McDonald has been impressive in three starts this season, helping San Francisco beat three California teams: the Padres, Dodgers and Athletics.
Not only has he avoided trouble so far, but he’s induced a ton of ground balls. In fact, he’s gotten 35 ground ball outs in comparison to 19 fly ball outs and 17 strikeouts. That 64.8% ground ball rate is in the 99th percentile and he relies on his sinker 57% of the time, also mixing in a slider (29%), changeup (13%) and cutter (1%). That’s important to note because the White Sox have the 7th-highest ground ball rate (44.3%), the third-highest weak contact rate (6.4%), and the highest whiff rate (28.8%).
Guys like Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas (41 homers combined) have transformed this lineup, Murakami (39.5% whiff) and Montgomery (45.8%) have had a hard time squaring up sinkers and only Vargas has hit the pitch well on the entire roster. I’m a big fan of McDonald’s stuff and ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark.
Martin has been one of the best stories of the early season and his 2.40 FIP suggests that he’s been nearly as dominant as his miniscule 1.61 ERA. San Francisco has the 8th-highest ground ball rate, 4th-worst hard hit rate, 5th-worst barrel rate and should play right into Martin’s strength’s since they have the 3rd-highest swing rate and 5th-worst chase rate. His career-best 27.4% strikeout rate should allow him to excel in this matchup and per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 95th percentile in Pitching Run Value, 88th percentile in chase rate and 83rd percentile in strikeout rate.
I’m not at all worried about the hard contact he’s allowed due to how terrible San Francisco has been at the dish. Martin has been remarkably consistent all season long, too, allowing no more than three earned runs in a game and no more than one earned run in seven of his nine starts. He’s recorded a Quality Start in seven of his last eight outings and I expect him to pitch deep into this one.
I don’t necessarily trust either bullpen, but given the run-suppression at this venue and the quality of both starting pitchers, I’ll back the under.