Marlins ML at Phillies (+102, FanDuel)
TrendsCenter: The Marlins have gone 17-3 on the ML (85%, +13.45u, 50.06% ROI) when priced +103 or shorter with Sandy Alcantara starting against another right-handed starter.
Probables: Sandy Alcantara (6-4, 4.25 ERA) vs. Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.43 ERA)
Sandy Alcantara has looked solid over his last three starts, going 7.0 innings with three earned runs allowed at the Nationals, 7.0 innings with an earned run against the Rays and then 8.0 innings with three earned runs at the Pirates. Most importantly, the Marlins won all three of those games and have won seven of Alcantara’s last 10 starts dating back to the middle of April. Although Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Trea Turner all have 39 or more at-bats against the veteran righty and have hit him well, I simply am going to put my faith in the guy on the mound. He’s been much better in day games (2.80 ERA) versus night games (5.50 ERA) this season and this is an early-afternoon affair.
Andrew Painter has been a disaster for the Phillies this year. Philadelphia has lost 10 of his last 11 starts and he’s in bad form, allowing 21 hits and 15 earned runs over his last 9.0 innings across three outings. He also allowed five home runs in that span to go along with 10 strikeouts and six walks in that span. Sporting a -11 Pitching Run Value at Baseball Savant, Painter grades out as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and I’m going to continue fading him while he’s still getting starts at this level.
Rays at Dodgers u7.5 (+102, FanDuel)
TrendsCenter: The under has gone 7-1 (87.5%, +5.9u, 67.05% ROI) when the Dodgers have faced left-handed starters in home games this season.
Probables: Shane McClanahan (6-4, 3.23 ERA) vs. Shohei Ohtani (6-2, 1.06 ERA)
There are a lot of terrible pitching matchups on today’s slate, but this is a great one. Shane McClanahan will be on the bump for the Rays and totals in six of his last nine starts have stayed under this number. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in Pitching Run Value and the star-studded Dodgers lineup has been worse against southpaws (10th in OPS) than righties (1st) and I’m a firm believer in McClanahan’s stuff.
It’s important to realize that 55.4% of Dodgers games have finished under the total, the 4th-highest rate in the Majors. Not only that, but the under has gone 22-14 (61.1%) in Dodgers home games, also the 4th-highest rate. Seven of Shohei Ohtani’s last eight starts have finished under this small 7.5-run total and his season-long pitching line has been ridiculous: 67.2 IP, 36 H, 8 ER, 73 K, 21 BB, 1.06 ERA. I don’t see him having an issue against a generally-weak Tampa Bay lineup.