Probables: Jared Jones (1-1, 4.37 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (10-4, 3.81 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Over the last eight years, teams on three-plus game winning streaks priced between +180 and -300 against right-handed starters with an O/U of 7.5 or higher have gone 233-166 on the ML (58.4%, +76.84u, 16.17% ROI) against teams that made the playoffs last season. 

Trend to tail with Pirates +106 or trap to fade with Guardians -124?

This is a trend to tail.

After looking a bit iffy returning from an injury that kept him out until late May, Jared Jones has taken a step forward and was utterly dominant in his last start before the All-Star break, posting 6.0 shutout, no-hit innings with eight strikeouts against the Braves. Boasting a 98.6 mph average fastball velo (96th percentile), his 27.1% strikeout rate is borderline elite and his 32.7% whiff rate is elite. The Guardians rank 25th in OPS against right-handed starters and 27th in slugging against righties. Cleveland has scored 3.98 runs per game at home (7th-lowest) as well.

Gavin Williams gets a tough matchup against a top-producing Pirates offense that has produced an average of 4.91 runs per game on the road (8th-highest). While Williams has elite strikeout numbers, he has allowed the highest barrel rate (11.9%) and highest hard hit rate (48.6%) among 62 qualified starters. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in barrel rate and 9th in hard hit rate and their .338 wOBA ranks just behind the Dodgers in the 2nd-best spot. I’m not a believer in Williams whatsoever and will happily back the Pirates on the road, where they’ve gone 23-23 on the season. Cleveland has gone 24-22 at home this year. 

Probables: Michael King (6-7, 3.41 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Since September 13, 2024, the Padres have gone 69-44 on the ML (61.06%, +15.81u, 10.57% ROI) against sub-.500 teams as a -210 or less favorite.

Trend to tail with Padres -110 or trap to fade with Royals -110?

This is another trend to tail.

While the Padres have gone 21-24 on the road and own a -43 run differential on the season with a bunch of large contracts and underachiving players on their roster, this is all about the matchup. The Royals are 38-59 overall and have gone 21-26 at home with a -88 run differential, which is the 3rd-worst mark in the entire Majors.

Michael King recorded three Quality Starts in his last four starts before the All-Star break and he’s been great at limiting hard contact (82nd percentile hard hit rate allowed) and inducing ground balls (69th percentile), which has led to a 92nd percentile Pitching Run Value mark. The one good thing this Royals offense does is hit the ball hard (2nd in hard hit rate) and they should be neutralized by King’s ability to miss the sweet spot and a dominant bullpen behind him. 

The Royals have the worst bullpen in the sport and Seth Lugo limped into the break with 18 earned runs allowed in 20.1 innings pitched over his last four starts. His Baseball Savant profile is full of red flags and he grades out as one of the worst starters in the league at this point, ranking in the 10th percentile or worse in Pitching Run Value, Breaking Run Value, xERA, xBA, average exit velo, chase rate and whiff rate. Not only that, but he ranks in the 15th percentile of barrel rate and 18th in hard hit rate. The Padres have a great chance to put up some crooked numbers in this one.

Probables: Brady Singer (3-9, 4.72 ERA) vs. Gabriel Hughes (0-0, 3.00 ERA)

TrendsCenter: The Reds have gone 14-2-1 to the under (87.5%, +11.8u, 63.1% ROI) with Brady Singer starting with a total of 8.5 or higher against a team that averages more runs scored than the league average. 

Trend to tail with under 12 runs or trap to fade with over 12 runs?

This is a trap to fade. I know 12 runs is a huge number, but the total is what it is for a few reasons.

Brady Singer has had a terrible season and has even gotten a little lucky according to the advanced numbers. Ranking in the 2nd percentile in Pitching Run Value, he ranks in the 5th percentile of average exit velo, 9th percentile in xERA, 12th percentile in xBA and 13th percentile in barrel rate. He grades out as one of the worst starters in the Majors right now and gets a bad matchup at Coors Field against the Rockies, who own the 2nd-best average, 5th-best OBP, 4th best slugging percentage and 3rd best OPS at home. 

This will be the third appearance for Gabriel Hughes at the Major League level this season and he posted a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque before getting called back up. In 102.1 career innings at the Triple-A level, he owns a 5.19 ERA across this season and last and hasn’t proven that he can perform against good or even decent hitters. I expect the Reds to put up some crooked numbers in this one and for both offenses to click, especially with 90ish degree temperatures in the thin Rocky Mountain air.