TrendsCenter: Since April 12, NL favorites have gone 20-1 on the ML (95.24%, +18.85u) against the Mets when the O/U has been above 7.0.

While Grant Holmes (4-4, 3.96 ERA) likely won’t pitch deep into this game, the Braves are still a quality team with arguably the best bullpen in the sport. Ranking first in the NL East, the Braves hold a clear and obvious edge at home against the Mets, who are bottom dwellers in the division. The Mets are an absolute dumpster fire at the moment. Losers of 10 of their last 12 games overall, New York is an auto-fade for me at the moment, especially with Christian Scott (2-0, 3.20 ERA) on the mound (and not Nolan McLean, who is the only starting pitcher on the roster that would give me pause in a situation like this).

TrendsCenter: Since April 10, the Nationals have gone 10-1 on the ML (90.91%, +11.06u) with Foster Griffin starting and an O/U of 8.0 or higher.

After refining his game in Japan for a few years, Foster Griffin (8-2, 2.93 ERA) returned to the United States and is giving the Nationals some solid production. Not only is the aforementioned 10-1 trend active for this matchup against the Pirates, but Griffin has been the most profitable starting pitcher to tail this season, leading Washington to a 13-4 record in his 17 starts. For reference, the Nats have gone 32-39 in all other games. 

Possessing an 83rd percentile Pitching Run Value, Griffin’s fastball sits in the low 90’s, but he’s been able to avoid free passes, limit hard contact, get hitters to chase pitches and induce ground balls. The Pirates are substantially less dangerous at the plate on the road and I feel comfortable backing Griffin to deliver another strong outing. 

Washington averages 5.38 runs per game at home, which makes them the 2nd-most dangerous team in that setting (right behind these Pirates). Mitch Keller (6-5, 4.87 ERA) has a troubling advanced profile and ranks in the 21st percentile of Pitching Run Value, 7th percentile in xBA, 15th percentile in Whiff % and 20th percentile in xERA, among others. I expect the Nats to do damage against him and hang some crooked numbers. Overall, I like Washington in this matchup.

TrendsCenter: Since May 30, the Diamondbacks have gone 16-0-2 to the under (100%, +16.0u) following a loss. 

Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.57 ERA) has been awesome on the mound all season for the Brewers and has an elite advanced profile across the board, most notably ranking in the 95th percentile of Fastball Run Value, 95th percentile of Breaking Run Value, 95th percentile of K %, 93rd percentile of Pitching Run Value and 85th percentile in xERA among other dominant metrics like Hard-Hit %, Chase % and Whiff %. This will be the first time he faces the D-Backs this season, which is a positive sign for him given his revamped arsenal. 

This will be the third start for D-Backs righty rookie Jose Cabrera (0-1, 3.60 ERA). The 24 year old had a 3.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 starts across Double-A and Triple-A before getting called up due to injuries above him on the depth chart. He may not be fully ready for this level of play, but he stifled the Twins in 5.0 scoreless innings with three hits allowed against the Twins in his debut. In his last outing, the Rays chased him in the 6th inning after playing small ball with two bunt singles before he made a couple mistakes across the middle of the plate. If he can turn in another decent outing, the under should be in play given Harrison’s upside when he trots out to the hill. Let’s double our money with the under.