📊 TrendsCenter: The Rays have gone 12-1 on the ML (92.31%, +12.43u, 84.27% ROI) with Nick Martinez starting against AL opponents this season.

🎟️ The Bet: Rays -145 (Trend To Tail)

The White Sox have won five straight Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.25 ERA) starts and nine of his last 11. However, I’m going to chalk this up to luck rather than skill. He owns a 12th percentile Pitching Run Value per Baseball Savant and ranks in the 2nd percentile of Chase %, 4th percentile of Whiff % and 10th percentile of K %. Not only that, but he had a 33rd percentile Hard-Hit % to go along with a 24th percentile xBA and 27th percentile xERA. His advanced profile is pretty much a giant red flag and the Rays have a clear advantage at the plate. 

The Rays have won six straight Nick Martinez (10-2, 2.45 ERA) starts and 16 of his 20 starts this season. While his whiff and strikeout rates are very low like Fedde’s, he has a 93rd percentile Pitching Run Value, which puts him among the best starters in the game this year. He also has a 99th percentile BB % and 87th percentile Hard-Hit %, so he very rarely gives up free passes or hard contact. This White Sox lineup is dangerous, but he’s continuously delivered against solid opponents. Give me Tampa Bay on the moneyline. 

📊 TrendsCenter: The Nationals have gone 15-2 on the ML (88.24%, +15.52u, 81.26% ROI) with Foster Griffin starting and an O/U of 8.0 or higher.

🎟️ The Bet:  Nationals +105 (Trend To Tail)

The Nationals have won seven straight Foster Griffin (12-2, 2.76 ERA) starts and have gone 17-4 in his 21 starts this year as the most profitable starting pitcher to tail. While I definitely don’t like betting against the Braves with Ronald Acuna at the top of the lineup and healthy, I’ve been tailing Griffin all season long and don’t plan on stopping now. Griffin ranks in the 89th percentile of Pitching Run Value and has given up a high percentage of ground balls, low percentage of hard hits, very low percentage of walks and has gotten hitters to chase out of the zone with ease. Despite throwing in the low 90’s, he keeps hitters off balance and hits his spots, which has been a pleasant deviation from the usual 100 mph flamethrowers that have become more and more common.

The Braves have lost four of the last six Bryce Elder (6-6, 3.96 ERA) starts and nearly his entire advanced profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture for him. He also doesn’t throw hard, just like Griffin, but doesn’t miss bats, allows hard contact and grades out as a back-end starter. This Nationals lineup has an ability to put up crooked numbers and I’ll put my faith in them doing so once again in this particular matchup.

📊 TrendsCenter: The Rockies have gone 7-1 to the under (87.5%, +5.9u, 67.05% ROI) with Tomoyuki Sugano starting at Coors Field this season.

🎟️ The Bet: Over 11.5 (Trap To Fade)

After making the AL All-Star Team, Michael Wacha (5-7, 3.60 ERA) has thrown two straight Quality Starts against the Giants and Tigers heading into this matchup. He’s been a quality starter, as indicated by his 69th percentile Pitching Run Value indicates and has allowed low hard hit and barrel rates. However, he owns a 31st percentile ground ball rate and very low strikeout (29th percentile) and whiff (17th percentile) rates. Usually, fly ball pitchers who struggle to miss bats have a hard time at Coors Field and it’ll be another warm day in the thin Rocky Mountain air. Oh, and coming in after Wacha will be a hilariously-bad Royals bullpen that might be the worst in the entire MLB.

Tomoyuki Sugano (10-4, 4.69 ERA) has simply been the luckiest pitcher in the Majors this year. With a .314 xBA (1st percentile) and 7.33 xERA (1st percentile), he has allowed a ridiculous 14.2% barrel rate (1st percentile) to go along with a 2nd percentile strikeout rate, 4th percentile whiff rate, 8th percentile average exit velo, 9th percentile chase rate, 10th percentile hard hit rate and 19th percentile ground ball rate, among more red flags. Like the Royals, Colorado’s bullpen is very bad and these are two of the four teams with bullpen ERA’s over 5.00. Even with Bobby Witt Jr. sidelined, I like the Royals’ outlook at the plate in this one and am going to say this trend is a definite trap.