POTD: Rangers ML vs. Padres (-144, Kalshi)
Texas 35-39, San Diego 38-35
Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.17 ERA) vs. Randy Vasquez (6-4, 3.63 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since Jacob deGrom joined the Rangers in 2023, Texas has gone 20-4 on the ML (83.33%, +12.88u, 27.24% ROI) in his starts as -140 or longer favorites.
Remember that time early in the season when we trusted Randy Vasquez? That seems like so long ago. After guiding the Padres to eight wins in his first nine starts, San Diego has lost four of Vasquez’s last five starts heading into this one.
Vasquez’s profile is horrendous. He has a 6.23 xERA (3rd percentile) in comparison to his 3.63 actual ERA and ranks in the 4th percentile of barrel rate, 6th percentile of average exit velocity, 9th percentile of hard hit rate and has essentially struggled across the board of every advanced category except walk rate.
The negative regression is coming and he should continue to struggle.
deGrom ranks in the 92nd percentile in Pitching Run Value and grades out as one of the most dominant strikeout artists in the sport still, ranking in the 94th percentile of whiff rate, 90th percentile in strikeout rate and 87th percentile in chase rate.
Through 6 home starts, deGrom owns a 1.26 ERA (t-3rd among qualified starters), 0.67 WHIP (best) and has allowed a .151 average (T2nd-best) while the Rangers have gone 4-2 in those starts.
The Padres rank 3rd-worst in average, 3rd-worst in on base percentage, 9th-worst in slugging and 4th-worst in OPS on the road this season.
While the Rangers are not consistent at the plate, the discrepancy on the mound is large enough for me to give the Rangers a clear edge. In my opinion, they should be closer to the -165 to -170 range, which makes -144 a bargain at Kalshi.