Are you kidding me with this price?

Andrew Alvarez might not be the best pitcher to back (2-3, 4.04 ERA), but Kyle Freeland is pitching for the Rockies.

Not only is he 2-8 with a 7.36 ERA, but over his last 13 starts, he’s allowed six or more earned runs seven times with 102 hits and 64 earned runs allowed in 66 innings. That’s an 8.73 ERA. Out of 300 pitchers on Baseball Savant, he ranks 3rd worst in Pitching Run Value, which essentially means he’s one of the worst pitcher in the sport.

The Nationals are going to salivate heading into this matchup.  Washington owns the BEST slugging percentage and OPS against lefties and ranks 2nd in average and on-base percentage against southpaws. Plus, they own the 2nd-best OPS on the road and rank just behind the Dodgers with 5.57 runs per game on the road.

Per TrendsCenter, the Nationals have gone 16-6 on the ML (72.73%, +15.44u) on the road against left-handed pitchers. 

Overall, the Nats have gone 30-19 (61.2%) on the road this season, the third-best win rate in that setting, while Colorado has gone 23-27 (46%) at home. 

Let’s not overthink this one.

Joe Ryan (6-5, 2.85 ERA) vs. Tanner Bibee (3-9, 3.90 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Since 2024, the Guardians have gone 28-6 to the ML (82.35%, +22.05u, 50.46% ROI) with Tanner Bibee starting vs. AL Central teams.

Trend to tail with Guardians +104 or trap to fade with Twins -115?

I’m going to say that this is a trap and I love the Twins in this matchup. They’ve won four of the six matchups against Cleveland so far this season and I expect them to get it done once again. In 92 at-bats against Joe Ryan, current Guardians hitters have slashed .185/.235/.283 and the Twins ace has registered 11 Quality Starts in 20 tries this season, which is significant as I’ll get to in a second. His advanced profile looks a lot like Gavin Williams: elite strikeout stuff (86th percentile), but someone who gives up a lot of hard contact (11th percentile barrel rate, 28th percentile hard hit rate). However, he ranks in the 98th percentile in Baseball Savant’s Pitching Run Value and grades out as an upper-echelon front-line starter in that regard. With Jose Ramirez out, the Guardians have struggled to score runs and currently rank second-last in runs scored per game at 3.95.

Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee is becoming a TrendsCenter legend with this trend in particular. He does rank in the 74th percentile in Pitching Run Value, but all of his advanced numbers except walk rate are in the bottom half of qualified pitchers. That includes both barrel rate and hard hit rate like Ryan struggles with. He also has 11 Quality Starts on the year just like Ryan, but this trend seems to be more of a product of luck against divisional opponents, as four of his seven outings against those teams have been Quality Starts. Minnesota ranks 7th in runs scored per game (4.83) and even though Cleveland holds a distinct advantage in the bullpen, I’m going to put my faith in Ryan being a much better starter than Bibee and in Minnesota’s lineup to put up some crooked numbers at the plate.

Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.49 ERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.15 ERA)

TrendsCenter: This season, the Pirates have gone 16-3 to the over (84.21%, +12.7u, 60.77% ROI) with Braxton Ashcraft starting.

Trend to tail with over 7.5 runs scored or trap to fade with under 7.5 runs scored?

This is another wild trend. I’m going to tail this and go with the over, but not because both pitchers are scrubs. Braxton Ashcraft has been very solid this year as his 83rd percentile Pitching Run Value Rating proves. Not only that, but he has an 82nd percentile strikeout rate, 96th percentile chase rate and has blown hitters away with an 88th percentile average fastball velo. I’m not sure how he incentivizes his teammates to hit or if it’s simply a product of how great Pittsburgh has been at the plate, but they’ve given him a ton of run support this year. In fact, over his last 12 starts, they’ve given him 8.58 runs of support per game, including five straight games over seven runs and five games of double-digit runs in that span. On the season, the Pirates have supported him with 6.8 runs per start, so look out, Ryan Weathers! Oh, and the Yankees are no slouches at the plate; they’ve scored 4.93 runs per game at home this season.

Weathers has allowed four or more earned runs in his last eight outings and faces a dangerous Pirates lineup that averages 4.92 runs per game on the road. With the exception of quality strikeout and walk rates, Weathers’ advanced profile isn’t impressive at all and I fully expect Pittsburgh to put up some runs in this one. I think 7.5 runs is simply too low for this matchup at Yankee Stadium.

Nick Martinez (8-2, 2.65 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (6-4, 2.56 ERA)

TrendsCenter: This season, the Rays have gone 10-1 on the ML (90.91%, +9.93u, 78.81% ROI) with Nick Martinez starting against AL teams.

Trend to tail with Rays +122 or trap to fade with Blue Jays -135?

I’m going to say that this is a trap and I’ll back the Jays in this matchup. Yes, Nick Martinez’s success this season has been a great story. However, his numbers scream negative regression. He owns an 8th percentile xBA, 28th percentile xERA and his 5th percentile strikeout rate and 5th percentile whiff rate leave a lot to be desired. The Blue Jays have certainly not been impressive at the plate this year, but they should be able to put the ball in play quite a bit with Martinez on the mound.

Dylan Cease is the stereotypical ace and grades out as one of the most dominant aces in the sport. Ranking in the 99th percentile of Pitching Run Value, 99th percentile in strikeout rate, 98th percentile in whiff rate, and over the 90th percentile in average exit velo, xBA, xERA and more, Cease has been a force to be reckoned with, with 148 punchouts in 98.1 innings pitched this season. He shut down the Rays with a 7.0 inning, three-hit, one-earned run, nine-strikeout performance back in May and has the upside to do that anytime he steps on the mound. When two aces with similar numbers, yet wildly different advanced numbers meet, I always prefer backing the guy with elite stats across the board. This is no exception.