TrendsCenter: The Mariners have gone 29-5 on the ML (85.29%, +22.44u, 41.23% ROI) with George Kirby starting vs. AL West opponents since June 22, 2022. 

Probables: George Kirby (8-8, 3.57 ERA) vs. Kumar Rocker (3-8, 4.13 ERA)

Trend to tail with Mariners -130 on the road or trap to fade with Rangers +110 at home?

This is a trap to fade.

George Kirby essentially grades out as an average MLB starter this season, also taking into account his advanced profile. Most alarmingly, he has struggled giving up hard hits and getting whiffs. The Mariners have lost three or Kirby’s last four road starts and given the fact that Seattle is 22-31 on the road (and 52-54 overall), behind the Rangers (53-52), I don’t think there’s value in backing the Mariners at this -130 price.

Instead, I’ll grab the AL West-leading Rangers, who will start Kumar Rocker, who is coming off arguably the best start of his young MLB career with a 6.0 inning, one-hit shutout performance en route to a 10-0 win over the White Sox. He has a better Pitching Run Value than Kirby, per Baseball Savant, and he is essentially an average starter as well. However, at +110 at home, I simply think there’s more value, making it the better bet against a team that struggles on the road.

TrendsCenter: The Phillies have gone 10-1 on the ML (90.91%, +8.85u, 51.13% ROI) with Zack Wheeler starting this season.

Probables: Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.16 ERA) vs. Tyler Phillips (2-5, 3.52 ERA)

Trend to tail with Phillies -170 on the road or trap to fade with Marlins +140 at home?

I’m going to tail this. 

Zack Wheeler has one of the most dominant Baseball Savant profiles I’ve ever seen and literally grades out as elite in every available metric. Not only that, but he’ll be going up against a Marlins team that has lost 11 consecutive games heading into this one. I’m not going to overthink this one: Philadelphia’s ML is the best bet, even at juiced up odds.