Cristopher Sanchez (10-3, 2.00 ERA) vs. Noah Cameron (4-6, 4.95 ERA)

TrendsCenter: This season, the Phillies have gone 23-4 on the ML (85.19%, +15.55u) when priced -160 or higher. This trend has won 13 straight times.

Trend with Phillies ML (-170) or trap to fade with the Royals +145?

This is a trap to fade, which may be a bit surprising.

We all know how dominant Sanchez has been this season and this Royals lineup ranks 21st in OPS against left-handed pitching. However, let’s take a look at how terrible the Phillies have been in these situations. Philadelphia’s lineup ranks dead-last in OPS in day games, dead-last in OPS on the road and ranks worse than the Royals (25th) in OPS against southpaws.

Noah Cameron has a 4.95 ERA but his 3.84 FIP and .322 BABIP prove that he’s been unlucky. His advanced profile doesn’t jump off the page, but this is literally the best possible matchup for him. This is the type of matchup I don’t mind backing the underdog in and I’ll do that in this one.

Mike Burrows (4-8, 5.58 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (2-7, 5.44 ERA)

TrendsCenter: This season, the Nationals have gone 16-3 to the over (84.21%, +12.7u) in series openers that start before 7pm ET.

Trend to tail with Astros at Nationals over 9.5 or trap with under 9.5 as the best bet?

This matchup screams runs. Both bullpens stink and have shared the dishonor of being the worst in the league in terms of ERA at various points of the year. Mike Burrows ranks in the 5th percentile of Baseball Savant’s Pitching Run Value while Miles Mikolas ranks in the 15th percentile with embarrassingly-low whiff and strikeout rates. The ball will be put into play, the ball will be hit hard and we should see some crooked numbers.

The over has hit at the highest rate in the Majors in Nationals home games (69.8%) and the 9th-highest rate in Astros games, so bad pitching and solid hitting vs. expectations have been themes in the first half for both squads.

Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.81 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.31 ERA)

TrendsCenter: This season, Mets National League opponents have gone 22-2 on the ML (91.67%, +19.85) with an O/U above 7.0.

Trend to tail with Braves ML vs. Mets (-125) or trap to fade with Mets ML?

This is a trend to tail.

Reynaldo Lopez has been very good at limiting hard contact and barrels and is right back where he belongs in the starting rotation for the Braves after splitting time between there and the bullpen. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta’s advanced numbers look worse than Lopez’s which is pretty shocking considering how he was such a coveted free agent. It took a miraculous 9th inning for the Mets to beat the Braves on Sunday and New York almost blew it. At this point, I don’t trust the Mets in any way.