Probables: Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.26 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (0-5, 9.00 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Since April 12, NL favorites have gone 14-1 on the ML (93.33%, +12.85u, 61.84% ROI) v. the Mets with an O/U over 7.0.

After four very bad starts, Imanaga got back on the right track with two straight dominant starts against the Rockies in which he gave up zero and then one earned run. Overall, Imanaga ranks in the 72nd percentile in Pitching Run Value and has missed bats with an elite chase rate (97th percentile) and whiff rate (87th percentile).

The Mets rank 24th in OPS against left-handed starters, so Imanaga should be able to navigate the lineup if he avoids getting hurt by Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto at the top.

The Mets have lost five of Kodai Senga’s six starts this season and he’s allowed seven homers in just 24.0 innings and has also struggled with command with 17 walks out of the gates (4th percentile walk rate). Senga has a -9 Pitching Run Value (9th percentile), has not induced ground balls (3rd percentile) and has given up a very high barrel rate (7th percentile) in that small sample size. He also has a 9th percentile chase rate.

The Cubs chase pitches at the 7th-lowest rate, have the 8th-lowest ground ball rate and rank in the middle of the pack as far as barrel rate is concerned. Coming into New York fresh off a Sunday rainout, I think the Cubs have a clear edge in this one.

Probables: Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.37 ERA) vs. Zebby Matthews (3-4, 4.78 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Since August 20, 2024, teams with left-handed starters have gone 48-22 on the ML (68.57%, +22.74u, 24.65% ROI) against the Twins.

Targeting teams with southpaw starters against the Twins has essentially been an auto-bet in recent years and Eric Lauer starting meets that criteria. He has been absolutely awful and his profile looks disgusting.

Zebby Matthews will start for the Twins and while he’s shown glimpses of promise, he grades out as a low-end starter at this point of his career, which spells trouble against a Dodgers team that ranks first in OPS by a huge margin over the rest of the Majors.

The Dodgers also own the best OPS on the road by a wide margin and have gone 23-15 overall away from LA while the Twins have gone 20-19 at home, just over .500. The Dodgers have the edge here in line with the trend.

Probables: Jake Bennett (1-3, 4.79 ERA) vs. Ryan Feltner (2-2, 5.05 ERA)

TrendsCenter: Over the last 22 years, when the Rockies have been underdogs in a game with a 12.5 or higher total, the under has gone 59-40-3 (59.6%, +15.0u, 13.37% ROI).

Jake Bennett is a ground ball pitcher and his 56.1 ground ball rate grades out as elite at the Major League level. He’s also gotten a 38.6% chase rate so far, which is outstanding. When pitching at Coors Field, you want to keep the ball on the ground and from what we’ve seen so far, Bennett should be able to do that.

The Rockies own the highest chase rate in the Majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a ceiling game from a strikeout perspective.

Ryan Feltner has been a mess on the mound for the Rockies, but gets to face a very bad Red Sox lineup that has been held to zero or one run scored in three of their last six games heading into this one. The under is where I want to be in this one, in line with the trend.