Braxton Ashcraft (7-3, 3.07 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.58 ERA)

Pirates games with Braxton Ashcraft starting this season have gone 14-2 to the over (87.5%, +11.8u, 67.05% ROI). This is active on Pirates-Phillies o8.5. 

Is this a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading?

This is a trend to tail, but is a bit misleading.

Ashcraft has gotten an insane amount of run support (nine or more runs in four of his last six outings). He ranks in the 92nd percentile in Pitching Run Value per Baseball Savant and has elite metrics across the board. Philly has notably struggled on the road this season, averaging 4.0 runs scored on the dot, 6th-worst in the Majors, but due to the power in the top and middle of their lineup and the struggles of Pittsburgh’s bullpen, I expect Philadelphia to generate some offense.

Nola, on the other hand, has been abysmal. He holds a 4th percentile Pitching Run Value and ranks as a below-average pitcher at this point in his career. The Pirates have been the best home offense in the Majors this season with 5.53 runs scored per game and I expect them to have success in this matchup. Give me the over. 

Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.87 ERA) vs. Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.56 ERA)

Since April 8, 2026, favorites against the Mets have gone 22-5 on the ML (81.48%, +15.9u, 43.49% ROI). This is active on Blue Jays -120. 

Is this a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading?

This is a trend to tail.

The Mets are an absolute disaster right now. Losers of 8 of their last 9, they’ve gone 4-13 in the 17 games Manaea has pitched in this season. Organizationally, New York is a dumpster fire and there’s no possible way I’m going to advocate backing them against a quality pitcher like Trey Yesavage who holds a 95th percentile xBA and 89th percentile xERA. 

Zebby Matthews (3-5, 4.56 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (6-4, 3.28 ERA)

Since 2023, Astros home games on Mondays when Houston’s had a -270 ML or shorter and the O/U was between 7.5 and 9.5 have gone 28-3 to the over (90.32%, +24.7u, 72.43% ROI).  This is active on Twins-Astros o8.5. 

Is this a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading?

I usually don’t like day of the week trends, but this is a trend worth tailing.

Zebby Matthews grades out as a below-average pitcher and only excels at one thing: avoiding free passes. Once he exits, the Twins will give the ball to the worst bullpen in the entire Majors in terms of ERA (5.45). 

Peter Lambert has been a much-improved pitcher from his days in Colorado and Houston’s bullpen has gotten better since Josh Hader returned (they were the worst or among the worst in the Majors before he made his season debut), but I think both offenses have an edge in this spot.

Tyler Mahle (1-7, 5.49 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (6-2, 2.27 ERA)

Over the last 11 seasons, Eduardo Rodriguez’s teams have gone 71-20 on the ML (78.02%, +41.56u, 22.49% ROI) against sub-.500 teams when they’ve been -320 or shorter favorites. This is active on Diamondbacks -132 vs. Giants. 

Is this a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading?

I’m going to say this is a trap to fade. 

While Rodriguez’s numbers are great, his advanced statistics tell a completely different story. He ranks in the 9th percentile in whiff rate, 20th percentile in strikeout rate, 28th percentile in chase rate, 22nd percentile in xERA and 23rd percentile in xBA. His 4.07 FIP, 4.44 xFIP and career-low .251 BABIP suggest that some negative regression is coming and I want to get ahead of it. The Giants offense has been boom or bust all season long, but I’ll take a shot on them. 

Tyler Mahle has struggled, but if there’s a matchup to turn things around, it’s this one. The D-Backs rank dead-last in OPS against right-handed pitchers and his xERA and xFIP are both better than E-Rod’s. This is a sneaky spot and won’t be chalky at all, but I’m firmly on the Giants in this matchup in the +115 to +120 range.

Ryan Johnson (1-2, 8.84 ERA) vs. George Kirby (6-7, 3.94 ERA)

With June 22, 2022, the Mariners have gone 27-5 on the ML (84.38%, +20.44u, 40.02% ROI) as favorites with George Kirby starting against the AL West. This is active on the Mariners -220 vs. the Angels. 

Is this a trend worth tailing or a trap worth fading?

I’m going to say this is another trap to fade. 

Ryan Johnson is coming off an outstanding outing in which he allowed a single hit in 6.0 shutout innings against the Orioles. He punched out eight hitters, walked one and showed what he could do against a non-elite offense. Before that, the 23 year old faced the Athletics twice, Dodgers twice and Cubs in his outings. This will be his seventh appearance and fourth start of the year. At 6’6 and with a 3/4 whip-like delivery, he should carry some positive momentum into a matchup against a Mariners lineup that has the 5th worst OPS.

The Mariners have lost three of George Kirby’s last four starts and five of his last seven. His advanced numbers paint the picture of an average starter and he struggles in two main categories: whiff rate (16th percentile) and hard hit percentage (26th percentile). The Angels are weaker without Mike Trout, but rank 5th in barrel rate as a team. They also rank 2nd worst in whiff rate, which means this matchup against Kirby may not be too daunting since he misses so few bats.

You can back the Angels in the +185 to +195 range if you’re into it. 

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