📊 TrendsCenter: Since April 29, 2023, the Rangers have gone 22-2 on the ML (91.67%, +19.38u) as home favorites against a non-divisional opponent with Nathan Eovaldi starting.

⚾ Probables: Framber Valdez (4-5, 4.05 ERA) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (8-7, 3.95 ERA)

The Rangers have won four of Nathan Eovaldi’s last five starts and he’s coming off arguably his best outing of the season in which he punched out nine Blue Jays with five hits allowed in 7.0 shutout innings. Ranking in the 100th percentile of Offspeed Run Value, Eovaldi throws his splitter 36% of the time (his most frequent pitch) and it grades out as the best splitter in the Majors by a wide margin. That has helped him rank in the 93rd percentile in Chase %, 83rd percentile in Whiff % and 85th percentile in Ground Ball %.

Detroit’s hitters have not performed well or hit the ball hard when facing split-fingered fastballs and only Colt Keith and Kevin McGonigle have performed adequately against curveballs, Eovaldi’s second most frequent pitch. Backing up the veteran righty will be a top-half Rangers bullpen in terms of ERA and the Tigers have scored just 4.07 runs per game on the road, 6th-fewest in the Majors, and own the 21st-ranked OPS against right-handed pitching.

Although the Rangers have struggled generating runs at home, they rank 13th in the Majors in OPS against left-handed pitching. The only thing Valdez does well is induce ground balls (90th percentile). He ranks in the 27th percentile in Hard Hit %, 25th percentile in K %, 16th percentile in Whiff % and grades out in the 42nd percentile in xERA and 36th percentile in xBA.

The Tigers have gone 2-8 in Valdez’s last 10 starts dating back to the start of May and he’s given up four or more earned runs in half of those outings. Detroit’s bullpen ranks slightly worse than Texas’ in terms of ERA and the Tigers’ 15 road wins (15-28) is tied for the lowest in the entire MLB. Texas has gone 19-18 at home, which isn’t incredible, but they have a clear edge in this spot. Give me the Rangers on the moneyline.

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