TrendsCenter: The Mariners have gone 12-1 to the ML (92.31%, +10.55u, 46.21% ROI) with Bryan Woo starting at home against an AL West opponent since August 28, 2023.

Probables: Jose Soriano (8-4, 3.32 ERA) vs. Bryan Woo (6-6, 4.26 ERA)

Despite Bryan Woo’s up-and-down season, he ranks in the 93rd percentile of Pitching Run Value, 93rd percentile of Fastball Run Value and 92nd percentile of Breaking Run Value. Not only that, but he owns a 97th percentile walk rate, 86th percentile chase rate, 74th percentile xERA and 66th percentile K rate. While he has given up a high hard-hit rate, the Angels are missing Mike Trout’s bat in their lineup and aren’t exactly a scary offense at the moment. Woo throws a four-seam fastball 50% of the time and Trout is LA’s top fastball hitter by a wide margin over Zach Neto and Jo Adell, who trail him in that regard.

The most significant aspect of Woo’s performance this season has been his home-road splits. He’s been dominant at home, with the following stat line: 5-0, 2.00 ERA, 7 GS, 45.0 IP, 24 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 2 HR, 52 K, 7 BB, .154 OBA. Meanwhile, he’s struggled mightily on the road, with this stat line: 1-6, 6.38 ERA, 9 GS, 48.0 IP, 55 H, 36 R, 34 ER, 7 HR, 40 K, 11 BB, .284 OBA. As a result, the Mariners have gone 5-2 in his seven home starts and 3-6 in his nine road outings.

Per TrendsCenter research, the Mariners have gone 28-9 on the ML (75.68%, +14.08u, 23.18% ROI) with Woo starting at home in his regular season career, including 13-4 on the ML against teams under .500. It’s worth pointing out that his best road start of the year came against this Angels team in LA: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB in a 3-1 Seattle win.

After an historic start, Jose Soriano posted a 5.34 ERA in May and then a 5.32 ERA in June. He still ranks in the 80th percentile in Pitching Run Value per Baseball Savant, but his 4.41 xERA ranks in just the 35th percentile and he’s allowed a high barrel rate while also struggling with control, especially lately. He ranks in the 25th percentile in Fastball Run Value at this point, which is also concerning for him given the fact that six different Seattle hitters have positive run value against that pitch type and he throws it 24% of the time. Five Mariners hitters also have positive run value against sinkers, which Soriano throws 26% of the time. Soriano’s 90th percentile ground ball rate is also something to note. However, the Mariners get under the ball at the 8th-highest rate in the Majors, so that ability might come in handy in this matchup.

Overall, I’ll target Seattle to earn the win.

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