📊 TrendsCenter: Since April 14, 2024, the Phillies have gone 20-0 on the ML (100%, 47.95% ROI) with Zack Wheeler starting at home as a favorite between -135 and -280 with a total of 7.5 or above.

📊 TrendsCenter: This season, the Phillies have gone 8-0 on the ML (100%, 61.73% ROI) with Zack Wheeler starting as favorites.

⚾ Probables: Paul Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA)

With undefeated 20-0 and 8-0 trends backing him, I’m firmly on Zack Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA) in this matchup. Possessing a 98th percentile Pitching Run Value, per Baseball Savant, Wheeler has been simply dominant across his entire profile, with a 92nd percentile chase rate, 89th percentile xERA, 84th percentile xBA and 80th percentile average exit velo among other top third marks. This Pirates lineup has been the best at home, but nearly .75 runs worse on the road and active Pittsburgh hitters have slashed .188/.241/.320 with 47 strikeouts against the veteran righty in 128 career at-bats. Pittsburgh got absolutely annihalated by Cristopher Sanchez on Tuesday and Wheeler should enter this game with momentum and confidence.

Paul Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA) has been similarly dominant for the Pirates, holding a 95th percentile Pitching Run Value and grades out as a dominant ace with a 94th percentile xERA, 93rd percentile strikeout rate and more. However, the Pirates have lost eight consecutive Skenes starts, which is almost unbelievable since he’s pitched well. The problem: a lack of run support and terrible defense backing him up. The Pirates rank 5th-worst in Defensive Runs Saved and they commit the 4th-most errors per game. With all of that being said, I’m going to back the Phillies to get the job done and keep the undefeated streaks going.

📊 TrendsCenter: Since May 1, the Marlins have gone 10-1 on the ML (90.91%, 69.72% ROI) with Max Meyer starting.

⚾ Probables: Max Meyer (9-0, 2.60 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.50 ERA)

Max Meyer (9-0, 2.60 ERA) may have entered the season as Miami’s fifth starter, but he’s emerged as their ace. With a 90th percentile Pitching Run Value, he ranks as an upper-echelon starter and he also ranks in the 99th percentile in Breaking Run Value to go along with a 77th percentile strikeout rate and 77th percentile whiff rate. The Rockies own the highest whiff rate in the Majors and he should be able to navigate through their lineup, even at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.50 ERA) is just eating innings for the Rockies. Just how awful has he been? Well, his -22 Pitching Run Value ranks 2nd-worst among 300 MLB pitchers graded on Baseball Savant. Only his teammate Michael Lorenzen has been worse at -23. In 72.0 innings, he has allowed 99 hits and 60 earned runs and has given up astronomically-high xBA, xERA, hard hit and barrel rates. Miami’s lineup should be able to hang crooked numbers on him.

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