Mariners at Pirates o8.5
Probables: George Kirby (5-7, 4.10 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (5-4, 4.92 ERA)
TrendsCenter: With a day of rest, the Mariners have gone 30-12 to the over (71.43%, +16.8u, 36.36% ROI) when priced +140 or shorter since July 9, 2024.
Over Kirby’s last 33.0 innings pitched across six starts, he has allowed 45 hits and 23 earned runs, good for a 6.27 ERA. Not only that, but he hasn’t allowed under three earned runs in any of those six starts.
Kirby’s profile looks solid across the board with the lone exception of hard hit rate, whiff rate, average exit velo and strikeout rate.
Keller has struggled and has a -4 Pitching Run Value rating, which ranks in the bottom fourth of active pitchers. He also ranks in the 7th percentile of xBA and 19th percentile in xERA. He struggles across the board with a low whiff rate, low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate.
Two thirds of Pirates home games have gone over the total so far, which is right in line with this trend as well.
Phillies at Nationals o8.5
Probables: Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 4.20 ERA) vs. Zack Littell (6-6, 5.45 ERA)
TrendsCenter: The over has gone 41-22-3 (65.08%, +16.8u, 23.14% ROI) in Nationals games that have started before 7:00pm ET this season.
Jesus Luzardo’s entire pitching profile is elite across the board, especially his 95th percentile hard hit rate.
However, the Nats own the best OPS against left-handed pitching in the Majors.
Zack Littell grades out as one of the worst starting pitchers in the Majors and ranks either worst or among the worst in xERA, xBA, average exit velo, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate and more.
The Phillies have the pop to go over this 8.5 run mark by themselves and I think the value is with the over and the trend.
Athletics ML at Giants (+105)
Probables: Aaron Civale (5-3, 4.91 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (5-6, 4.07 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since July 24, 2025, the Athletics have gone 51-36 (58.62%, +25.47u, 29.07% ROI) as underdogs.
The Athletics have won four of Civale’s last six starts and while he’s been brutal lately, he pitched well enough to stifle the Giants in a 5-2 win back in mid May.
His profile looks brutal, but the Giants rank 23rd in home OPS and I’m not going to buy their recent hot streak at the plate.
The Giants have won five straight times when Robbie Ray has been on the mound, but he’s had an insane amount of run support: 8, 19, 18, 11 and 7 runs in that span.
Ray has given up a high barrel rate, very low ground ball rate and has a 19th percentile xERA. I don’t trust the streak he’s on.
The A’s own the 5th-best OPS against southpaws and have a ton of pop in their lineup. I’ll take a shot on them as road dogs.