Guardians at White Sox
Probables: Tanner Bibee (2-8, 4.03 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (2-6, 4.46 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since the start of the 2024 season, the Guardians have gone 26-5 on the ML (83.87%, +21.09u, 52.29% ROI) in Tanner Bibee’s starts against AL Central teams.
Trend with the Guardians -118 or trap with the White Sox +105?
This is a trend to tail with the Guardians.
Tanner Bibee has been a victim of bad run support all season long and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 16 starts. Possessing a 67th percentile Pitching Run Value despite giving up a high hard hit rate among a few other red flags, Bibee simply isn’t as bad as his 2-8 record suggests and has a history of dominating his division. This will be his first start against the White Sox this season.
Erick Fedde is someone I love picking on. With a -7 Pitching Run Value (12th percentile), he grades out as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and possesses a very low strikeout rate (10th percentile) as well as 3rd percentile chase and whiff rates.
Both bullpens are middling, but I’m going to give Bibee the edge backed by the elite trend.
Red Sox at Rockies
Probables: Ranger Suarez (3-3, 2.93 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.36 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since July 4, 2025, favorites against the Rockies when Kyle Freeland has started before 7pm ET have gone 11-1 (91.67%, +8.3u, 34.86% ROI).
Trend with the Red Sox -165 or trap with the Rockies +149?
This is a trend to tail with the Red Sox.
Ranger Suarez has been either really good or not good at all in his starts. He has six starts where he gave up zero earned runs and five starts where he gave up four or more earned runs. As a whole, though, he ranks in the 95th percentile of Pitching Run Value and has been elite across most of his pitching profile, most notably hard-hit rate (86th percentile), which should come in handy at Coors Field.
Kyle Freeland, on the other hand, has been a disaster. He has a -17 Pitching Run Value which grades out among the worst starters in the Majors and has a 2nd percentile xBA, 9th percentile xERA and pretty much does nothing well except avoid free passes. Even though the Red Sox seemingly invent new ways to lose, there’s no way I can avoid backing the opposing team with this gas can on the mound.
Braves at Padres
Probables: Martin Perez (6-3, 2.78 ERA) vs. Randy Vasquez (6-5, 4.17 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since 2025, as -125 or shorter favorites and Martin Perez as the starting pitcher, teams have gone 10-1 to the under (90.91%, +8.9u, 73.55% ROI) with an O/U between 7.5 and 8.5.
Trend to tail with under 7.5 or trap to fade with over 7.5?
This is a trend to tail once again.
Martin Perez owns an 86th percentile Pitching Run Value and 78th percentile ground ball percentage and gets a matchup against a Padres lineup that ranks dead last in OPS at home and 2nd-last in OPS against left-handed starters. He should be able to navigate through San Diego’s offense.
Losing Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of their lineup has limited Atlanta’s offensive upside every night, which is good news for Randy Vasquez, who has one of the most troubling Baseball Savant profiles despite his decent ERA.
Both of these bullpens are absolutely elite and I am firmly on the under here. The only bit of pause I had with this one is Vasquez vs. Atlanta’s lineup, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take.