Written by Dan Karpuc
The NBA regular season is entering the stretch run, and this is the time of year when trends tied to motivation, scheduling, and late-season incentives can create serious betting value.
At TrendsCenter, we’re constantly digging through decades of historical data to identify profitable betting systems that still hold up in today’s market. For Friday’s slate, three spots immediately stand out based on long-term trends, current team form, and injury situations across the league.
I’m targeting a pair of double-digit favorites in strong motivational spots along with a road favorite that should take advantage of a severely depleted opponent.
Here are my NBA Best Bets for Friday, March 13, 2026.
Pistons -15.5 vs. Grizzlies (-110, ProphetX)
Over the last 30 years, when a team has been favored by 15 or more against a non-conference opponent, they’ve gone 148-95-7 ATS (60.91%, +43.5u, 15.82% ROI). Detroit is coming off a 22-point win against the Sixers last night and has gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests as double-digit favorites and the Grizzlies enter this game in terrible form, losing three consecutive games and failing to cover against the Mavericks (last night), 76ers and Nets. Memphis has gone 13-14 ATS as a road dog this season and it’s worth mentioning that Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are out while Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Walter Clayton Jr., Cam Spencer, Scotty Pippen Jr., Santi Aldama and Taj Gibson all sat out last night for Memphis. I expect Detroit to roll once again in this one.
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Knicks -11.5 at Pacers (-109, ProphetX)
Over the last 29 years, road teams who lost their last game against an opponent but were favored by nine or more points in the rematch have gone 104-64-4 (61.9%, +33.6u, 17.76% ROI). Tyrese Haliburton and Johnny Furphy are confirmed out while Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin and Quenton Jackson all sat out yesterday for Indy while both Ivica Zubac and Andrew Nembhard played a half before sitting in a 15-point loss to the Suns on their home floor. New York beat Indy by one (114-113) and then lost to them by three in OT (137-134) back in February, but these teams are going in opposite directions at the moment and have very different incentives. The Knicks need to keep winning while the Pacers need to keep losing and at this point, I can’t trust any team that’s tanking. Give me New York to cover.
T-Wolves -6 at Warriors (-112, ProphetX)
As you can see above, since 2007, after the 50th game of the regular season, road favorites between -6 and -16.5 have gone 700-508 ATS (57.95%, +141.2u, 10.44% ROI). Golden State has gone 2-6 ATS as a home underdog this season and will continue to be without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody while De’Anthony Melton and Quinten Post while Minnesota will be healthy with the lone exception of Ayo Dosunmu (questionable). Last time these teams played, the Wolves earned a 108-83 victory and this is a great number to get in a get-right spot for Minnesota after 25, 14 and 27-point losses to the Clippers, Lakers and Magic over their last three contests. Golden State has lost back-to-back games outright to the Bulls and Jazz, by the way. Give me Minnesota to cover on the road.