Written by Dan Karpuc
After going exactly 2-1 on my three daily picks from Tuesday to Friday, I’m back to continue my winning ways using TrendsCenter trends and systems to guide me, as always. Let’s get right into my favorite three plays of the slate.
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Hawks at Magic Under 231.5 (-102, ProphetX)
Since January 1, games between teams in the same conference that went over the total last time they played with a total less than 238.5 in the rematch have gone 71-45-1 to the under (61.21%, +21.5u, 16.71% ROI).
The Hawks are riding a nine-game winning streak into this matchup against the Magic and they’ve essentially reinvented themselves since trading away Trae Young. Giving up less than 100 points four times in that nine-game span, the Hawks own the Association’s top Defensive Rating during that streak as well, a testament to the transformation that coach Quin Snyder has accomplished in recent weeks.
In that same recent number of games, the Magic rank 5th in Defensive Rating and are riding a seven-game winning streak. Both squads have been efficient on the offensive end as well, but markets are still pricing totals in Hawks games like Young is on the team. The under has hit in nine of Atlanta’s last 12 games and, in my opinion, has been inflated by recent Orlando overs against bad defensive teams like the Wizards (twice), Bucks and Heat in recent weeks.
Note that Anthony Black and Franz Wagner will be out for the Magic while Jonathan Kuminga is questionable for Atlanta. Given the active system in play, I’ll happily back the under in this spot.
Lakers at Rockets Under 225 (-118, ProphetX)
When the Rockets have been favored against Western Conference teams since Christmas, the under has gone 16-3 (84.21%, +12.7u, 60.77% ROI).
While Houston’s play has been a bit up and down lately, three straight unders have won in their games and the trend above is in play once again. They’ve allowed three of their last five opponents under 106 points (two under 100) and over the last 10 games, they’ve scored the 5th-fewest points per game (110.8) while allowing the 5th-fewest points (109.4) while playing at the fourth-slowest Pace.
The under has gone 8-4 in Los Angeles’ last 12 games and the last time these teams played (Christmas Day), the Rockets earned a 119-96 win, easily staying under the 231.5 closing total. Winners of five straight and eight of their last nine, this Lakers team is red-hot right now, but Houston is one of the teams with the personnel to slow down Luka Doncic. In the last matchup between these teams, they held him to 25 points on 9-17 shooting and forced him to turn the ball over six times compared to seven assists. With elite on-ball defenders like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and others, expect Ime Udoka and his staff to craft up a game plan that will force others to beat them.
I expect this to be a physical, defensive-oriented battle between two teams with concentrated offensive philosophies. Anything outside of Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves can’t be relied on for the Lakers while any production outside of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun can’t be expected for Houston. Give me the under.
Spurs -8.5 at Clippers (-105, ProphetX)
After the 50th game of the season, when a road team is favored by 6 to 16.5 points, they’ve gone 702-509-21 (57.97%, +142.1u, 10.49% ROI).
The Spurs are making a clear case to be regarded as the 2nd-best team in the NBA, right behind the Thunder. The last time these teams played, they beat the Clippers 116-112 back on March 6 and San Antonio failed to cover as -7 favorites, but I’m all over this 8.5 number with Kawhi Leonard (ankle) doubtful for Los Angeles.
With Kawhi out this season, LA has gone just 4-10 overall, but has been susceptible to blowout losses, falling by 28 to the Bulls (January 10), 28 to the Magic (November 20), 14 to the Nuggets (November 12), 11 and 13 to the Suns (November 8 and 6) and 19 to the Thunder (November 4). Especially with James Harden gone, the Clippers rely on Leonard so much on both ends of the floor, so his loss would be a gigantic one.
Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are close to full health and when they play up to their standards and upside on both ends of the court, things can get ugly fast. I’ll be with the system above and back the Spurs to cover this number.