Spurs -4.5 vs. Knicks (-110, DraftKings)
📊 TrendsCenter: Over the last 22 seasons, home favorites with less rest than their opponents in Game 1 of the NBA Finals have gone 10-2 ATS (83.33%, +7.8u, 59.09% ROI). In general, the home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone 18-5 ATS (78.26%, +12.5u, 49.41% ROI) over that same time span and home favorites of 10 or less points have gone 18-3 ATS (85.71%, +14.7u, 63.64% ROI).
Heading into Game 1 of the NBA Finals, we know what we’re going to see from the Spurs. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Victor Wembanyama will start with Dylan Harper and Keldon Johnson picking up most of the minutes off the bench while Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant and Harrison Barnes play minor minutes here and there when needed. They’ll have the home court advantage on their side as well as the momentum from taking down the defending champion Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.
What we don’t know is what the Knicks will do rotationally to match up against San Antonio. Will Mitchell Robinson, who is dealing with a broken pinkie, start alongside Karl-Anthony Towns or take KAT off the court at times due to his ability to defend Wemby at the rim and rebound at an elite level? Will Jalen Brunson struggle against the larger Fox and physical on-ball defense of Castle? Will Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby contribute on the offensive end? Will New York’s bench make a positive impact?
This Knicks team has been a cover machine in the playoffs, but the Finals are all about matchups and in-game adjustments. Playing Wembanyama is going to essentially eliminate a lot of the easy looks around the rim that they took advantage of in previous rounds and I’m not sold that Brunson in particular is going to be able to take over games like he has in the past. If the Spurs were able to limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and make other OKC players try to beat them, they’ll likely be able to do the same against Brunson in this series. Give me the Spurs to cover in Game 1, especially given all of the Game 1 trends listed above.