Coming off another three-game sweep, I’m locked and loaded to crush another slate using @TrendsCenterApp trends and systems to guide me along. I’m keyed in on a few spots today, so let’s get right into them.
MLB: Braves ML at Diamondbacks (-115, @FanaticsBook)
TrendsCenter: Dating back to June of 2024, favorites of -108 to -142 playing a non-divisional game before the 86th game of the season in the 2nd game of the series after scoring eight runs in their last game have gone 21-2 SU (91.3%, +18.71 units, 66.25% ROI) when the total was above 7.0. This system has won 16 times in a row.
Grant Holmes (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will take the hill for Atlanta (5-2) against Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (3-4) in Arizona tonight. Last night, Atlanta’s offense exploded for 17 runs on 16 hits in a 17-2 blowout win and showed off the sky-high offensive upside their lineup has from top to bottom. I’m very bullish on the Braves this season, particularly due to their ability to put up crooked numbers, and I’m going to back them in this spot and bet on the system hitting 17 times in a row.
NBA: Pelicans -5.5 at Kings (-105, @BetRivers)
TrendsCenter: This season, the Pelicans have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS (100%, +7.0 units, 90.91% ROI) when favored against Western Conference opponents.
While Dejounte Murray’s status is not yet determined at the time of this writing, the Pelicans have a distinct advantage heading into this matchup, with Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Herbert Jones, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen and more ready to do work. It’s weird seeing a road team on a six-game losing streak like these Pelicans (25-52) as a 5.5-point favorite, but that’s indicative of how terrible this Kings team is. Sacramento (20-57) will be without Russell Westbrook, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Drew Eubanks, Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Isaiah Stevens and have lost four of their last five outright. They’ll be relying on DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Devin Carter and Malik Monk (questionable) to generate offense. I’ll happily back New Orleans -5.5 in this spot.
NBA Parlay: Hornets, Hawks & Pelicans To All Win (-136, @PlayProphetX)
TrendsCenter: Over the last 13 years, -1010 to -4000 moneyline favorites past game 65 of the regular season facing teams with a win percentage of 25% or less with a total between 200 and 240 have gone 76-0 (100%, +76 units, 5.05% ROI). The Hornets vs. the Pacers and Hawks vs. the Nets fit this trend and the Pelicans are a perfect 7-0 ATS as favorites vs. Western Conference opponents as listed above, so they’re also perfect in this situation.
This system basically notes that gigantic favorites like the Hornets (against the Pacers) and Hawks (versus the Nets) have taken care of business late in the season over the last 13 years, going 76-0 in those kinds of matchups against inferior opponents. Not only that, but the Pacers have 10 players on the Official NBA Injury Report while the Nets have six, so they’ll largely be playing with G-League and/or role players elevated into starting and rotational assignments against playoff-bound clubs.
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