🏀 NBA: Pistons +3.5 at Cavaliers in Game 6 (-105, DraftKings)
📊 TrendsCenter: Facing elimination, road teams who lost their last game as a favorite have gone 36-17 ATS (67.92%, +17.3u, 29.67% ROI) over the last 22 years.
It was a tale of two halves in Game 5. The Pistons were firmly in control at halftime, holding a 60-52 advantage. However, the Cavs then surged in the third, where they-outscored Detroit 32-20, before the teams went back and forth to force overtime, where Cleveland ultimately came out on top. Now down 3-2, the Pistons have their backs against the wall, which could be a positive if you’re betting them +3.5, as the system shows above.
The Pistons held a 15-point lead in the second quarter of Game 5 and failed to fully capitalize on the 17 turnovers that Cleveland had even though Detroit turned them into 27 points and had a 23-7 advantage in fastbreak points. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell shot a combined 38.5% from the field. Harden has a legacy of not thriving in situations like this while Mitchell has never advanced to the Conference Finals. Should we trust them to deliver in this situation?
Detroit undoubtedly needs someone to help Cade Cunningham win this game. That man needs to be All-Star center Jalen Duren, who has been an afterthought in this series. But, even if it’s Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson or even someone like Daniss Jenkins or Caris LeVert off the bench, the Pistons will welcome the assistance. That unpredictability could actually play to their advantage because we know that Mitchell and Harden will be the top two volume scorers for the Cavs, which is something Detroit can game plan for.
Give me the Pistons and the points.
🏀 NBA: Spurs -4.5 at Timberwolves in Game 6 (-114, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: Coming off a 20-plus point win against the same team, road playoff favorites have gone 76-41-3 ATS (64.96%, +30.9u, 23.41% ROI) over the last 29 years.
As the Spurs showed in Games 2 and 5 of this series, when they’re clicking, the Timberwolves can’t really keep pace with them. With a 133-95 win in Game 2 and 126-97 victory in Game 5, Victor Wembanyama & Co. got out to a 18-point lead by the second quarter last time out and finished the third quarter on a 19-6 run with a 98-71 lead.
Even though Minnesota controlled the paint in Game 5, the Spurs used their athleticism and physicality with Dylan Harper and 6th Man of the Year Keldon Johnson making huge impacts off the bench. Julius Randle has been awful for the Wolves in this series and Wemby has essentially neutralized Rudy Gobert on the offensive end, even bringing up the idea of giving Naz Reid extended minutes moving forward over him.
All in all, with a trip against OKC looming in the Western Conference Finals, I expect San Antonio to get the job done with a win and cover, in line with the 29-year system above.
⚾ MLB: Diamondbacks at Rockies o12 (-105, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: Over the last 9 years, when the Rockies were home underdogs with a 12-run O/U with two bad starting pitchers (both over a 5.00 ERA), the over has gone 8-2-1 (80%, +5.8u, 47.93% ROI).
Not only will it be warm with the wind blowing out at Coors Field on Friday, but this pitching matchup is going to make hitters on both teams salivate. Merrill Kelly (2-3, 7.62 ERA) will toe the rubber for the D-Backs while Kyle Freeland (1-4, 6.00 ERA) will be on the bump for the Rockies.
Kelly has allowed five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts and even though he’s coming off a solid start against the Mets, he has a 9.92 xERA, sky-high 19.8% barrel rate, very high 48.8% hard hit rate and very low ground ball and strikeout rates, all of which are sounding alarm bells for him in the thin Rocky Mountain air. Colorado’s offense averages 4.33 runs, but 4.63 at home. Arizona’s bullpen has a 4.38 ERA, which is the 11th-worst mark in the Majors.
Freeland has allowed 18 hits and 12 earned runs, including five home runs in his last two starts (9.1 IP) and has essentially destroyed a solid start to his campaign. The D-Backs rank 6th in batting average and 8th in slugging against southpaws and will face the 10th-worst bullpen (in terms of ERA) after Freeland exits in this one. While Freeland has gotten hitters to chase pitches and rarely issues free passes, his low strikeout rate should spell trouble for him in this matchup.
Give me over 12 runs.
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