Angels at White Sox o8.5 (-110, FanDuel)
📊 TrendsCenter: With Yusei Kikuchi starting with a moneyline between +270 and -210 and a total between 8.0 and 9.0 over the last seven seasons, the over has gone 70-33-4 (67.96%, +33.7u, 28.63% ROI).
Kikuchi is off to a slow start to the year with an 0-3 record and 6.21 ERA through six outings for the Angels, allowing lots of hard contact, a low ground ball rate and ranking in the 20th percentile of Pitching Run Value, per Baseball Savant, essentially grading out as one of the worst pitchers in the Majors thus far.
Erick Fedde (0-3, 3.42 ERA) will start for the White Sox and his profile isn’t as bad as Kikuchi’s, but there are a number of red flags in play with him on the mound, too. He ranks in the 24th percentile in Chase % (26.3%), 13th percentile in K % (14.8%) and 11th percentile in Whiff % (18.0%), so don’t expect him to miss too many bats. While he’s given up a middling amount of hard contact, I love backing the over when there are two starters on the mound who give up plenty of contact. That’s when crooked numbers have the highest upside and I’m going to be in line with this trend in this one.
Cavaliers -8.5 vs. Raptors (+117, Kalshi)
📊 TrendsCenter: In Game 4 or later in a tied playoff series over the last 23 years, a 7.5-point favorite or higher who as a favorite in their previous game has gone 27-4 ATS (87.1%, +22.6u, 66.28% ROI).
This series has been quite interesting so far, as the home team has held serve each time out. Now tied up 2-2, the series moves to Cleveland, where the Cavs won Game 1 by 13 (126-113) and Game 2 by 10 (115-105). The Raptors won Game 3 by 22 and Game 4 by four in Toronto.
As the 23-year system above shows, heavy favorites have thrived in this spot, covering at an 87.1% rate. At home in this series, the Cavs have averaged 120.5 points on 53.7% shooting, including 40.3% from three with a 121.7 Offensive Rating. On the road, that Offensive Rating dipped to 100.0 and they’ve averaged 96.5 points on 40.5% shooting (28.2% from three). Therefore, these have looked like two completely different teams on that end of the floor, depending on the setting.
Now back in Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden & Co. should have a great opportunity to break the tie and deliver with a statement Game 5 win and cover.
Lakers -3.5 vs. Rockets (-118, DraftKings)
📊 TrendsCenter: After Game 1 of a playoff series, home teams with a moneyline of -270 or shorter, a spread between -1.5 and -6.5 with a game total of 233.0 or lower who failed to cover the spread in their previous opponent have gone 25-4-1 ATS (86.21%, +20.6u, 62.42% ROI) when the team scores more PPG than the league average against an underdog that has a win percentage less than 62%. This system has won 17 consecutive times.
The Lakers got off to a shocking 3-0 lead in this series before the Rockets stayed alive with a 19-point win in Game 4. It’s bad news for Houston’s chances to repeat that performance given the system above that’s won 17 straight times.
Kevin Durant (ankle) is not expected to play once again, which means that we should see similar rotations from Houston. Meanwhile, Austin Reaves is optimistic to return from his oblique injury that has kept him out of action for a few weeks. He averaged 23.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists during the regular season and will be a huge piece for Los Angeles with Luka Doncic still on the mend. In 10 games without Doncic this season, Reaves put up 28.6 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists per contest en route to a 6-4 Lakers record.
With KD still out, I don’t think Houston is going to have the dependable offensive firepower to get the job done on the road and I trust LeBron James and his experience to lead LA to the next round.