POTD: Phillies ML vs. Mets (-125, BetMGM)
Probables: Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA)
TrendsCenter: Since April 12, 2026, National League favorites against the Mets have gone 13-0 (100%, +13u, 73.65% ROI) with a total above 7.0 runs.
My Season Record: 66-42 (61.11%, +15.03u)
Phillies have won 7 of Nola’s last 8 starts dating back to the beginning of May.
Nola’s pitching profile has essentially been average in most categories despite his inflated ERA. His 4.50 FIP and .333 BABIP suggests some positive regression is coming and he’s gotten a bit unlucky.
Statistically, Nola’s fastball is an issue and what’s gotten him into trouble, but the Mets rank 27th in fastball runs above average at the plate, dead-last in sinker runs above average (Nola’s third most frequent pitch), 4th-worst in cutter runs above average and are essentially middle of the pack against knuckle-curves and changeups, which make up the rest of Nola’s makeup.
The Mets average 3.59 runs per game on the road, 2nd-worst in the Majors, so I think the blueprint is there for Nola to have a solid outing at home.
Philly ranks 12th in runs scored at home (4.50) and will face Sean Manaea, who is making his 16th appearance, but just 2nd start of the year, essentially spending most of his time as a bulk reliever.
It remains to be seen how many pitches he will throw, but he will need to be careful with plenty of high-profile bats at the top of this Phillies lineup.
Philadelphia is 21-18 at home while New York is 15-23 on the road and given all of this info plus the perfect 13-0 trend I mentioned, I’m firmly on the Phils to grab the win against their divisional foes.