TrendsCenter: In Week 1, home underdogs of +2.5 or longer have gone 75-37-1 ATS (66.96%, +34.3u, 27.59% ROI) with totals between 48.5 and 64.0 since 2014.

Dan Karpuc’s Pick: Tulsa +12.5 at home

After starting 3-0 in 2024, Oklahoma State lost 20 straight games against FBS schools over the last two seasons and finished 1-11 in 2025, with a lone win over FCS opponent Robert Morris. Now head coach Eric Morris is at the helm and he will bring with him an electric offensive philosophy that saw his teams at North Texas a perennial juggernaut at that side of the ball. The major story here will be Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 4,379 yards to lead the FBS with 34 touchdowns and nine interceptions for the Mean Green after not starting a single game in high school. He will be the Cowboys’ QB and came over with Morris. 

While Oklahoma State should generate points, the real question mark is on the other side of the football. Since there are a lot of transfers coming in and the defense will likely be on the field for much longer than the offense based on style, it’ll be interesting to see how easily the Cowboys get stops. Last year, North Texas went 10-4 ATS under Morris, but it’ll be a difficult task to go on the road for a new school with a lot of new players in Week 1, even if Tulsa went 6-6 ATS last year.

Second-year Tulsa head coach Tre Lamb will look to improve off a 4-8 campaign and added running backs from Auburn and Mississippi State in the transfer portal. Quarterback Baylor Hayes will return under center and should benefit from having an experienced offensive line to protect him. With some defensive transfers from places like Baylor and Nebraska along with poaching UAB’s leading tackler Devin Hightower, the Golden Hurricane have a win total of 5.5, right on the cusp of being bowl eligible. 

The question here is whether they can keep this game within 12 points and given the fact that they’re at home against a rebuilding Oklahoma State program with a coaching debut. Given the aforementioned trend, I think there’s a solid chance that’ll happen.